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Category: General Election

The one thing we are not getting st the moment is a clear picture from the polls

The one thing we are not getting st the moment is a clear picture from the polls

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So which pollsters’ numbers do you prefer Conference season is now over and we now face the final few months before Britain is scheduled to leave the EU. UK politics is set to go through a period of turmoil and there’s not an insignificant chance that there could be an early general election. Mrs. May’s wonderful dance sequence prior to her Birmingham conference speech might have diverted attention for a short while but decisions that could impact on the nation…

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Given current polls the Tories shouldn’t be spooked by Corbyn but they are

Given current polls the Tories shouldn’t be spooked by Corbyn but they are

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The shockwaves of June 8th 2017 continue The Speccies Isabel Hardman has an excellent piece under the heading “Why the Tories feel so spooked by Jeremy Corbyn”. She argues that some of the messages from the LAB leader have the potential to resonate. She goes on: I understand that the reason Labour has decided to talk so much about the way capitalism has left certain voters behind is that recent polling carried out by the party found it had strong…

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Both main party leaders have seen their ratings decline since the last conference season – Corbyn’s more May’s

Both main party leaders have seen their ratings decline since the last conference season – Corbyn’s more May’s

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Corbyn needs to turn things round for LAB to have a chance The end of the Party Conference season is a good time to look back at the past year through the prism of the Ipsos MORI leader satisfaction ratings. This is part of the longest running polling series in the UK and is now in its fifth decade. As can be seen from the chart both leaders have experienced a marked decline in the levels of satisfaction over the…

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Polling boost for beleaguered Theresa as the Tory conference opens in Birmingham

Polling boost for beleaguered Theresa as the Tory conference opens in Birmingham

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Her party retakes the lead with Opinium Opinium fieldwprk Sept 26-29 CON 39+2 LAB 36-3 LD 9= It used to be one of those rock solid polling rules that LAB would always get a boost in its polling position in surveys taken at the end of its September conference and before the Tory one started. After all the media focus has been on the red team and during the week the general perception was that Labour had had a much…

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The Conservatives must join and win the battle of ideas

The Conservatives must join and win the battle of ideas

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The Thatcherite consensus is dead; the case for choice, freedom and opportunity is not In full, the United States’ Declaration of Independence is not a very good document. It bears the classic mark of the composite motion, being too long overall and unbalanced in its structure: very nearly half of it is a list of twenty-seven grievances. Fortunately, for history and for the revolutionaries, it was drafted by someone who knew not only how to turn a phrase but where…

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The harsh truth for LAB is that the next General Election is in May 2022 and only the Tories have the power to hold it earlier

The harsh truth for LAB is that the next General Election is in May 2022 and only the Tories have the power to hold it earlier

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Even if there is a total CON Brexit collapse there is still the Fixed Term Parliament Act Ever since June 9th last year politics has been going through rather a strange phase. The biggest losing party, LAB, acted as though it was the winner and the main winning party, CON, acted as though it had lost. Mr Corbyn was celebrated almost wherever he went and Mrs May has had to cope with endless speculation about her future. Both are still…

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The betting chances of LAB winning the next election edge down to the lowest level since GE2017

The betting chances of LAB winning the next election edge down to the lowest level since GE2017

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Betdata.io Given that one of the ongoing themes of Labour’s conference has been the hope that there can be another GE soon I thought it might be useful to look for the first time at next general election betting. By the time we get to polling day – sometime between now and May 2022 – this market will see a large amount of activity. The only reason to be betting now is if you think the odds on your selection…

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How the readership of the main national papers are split on Brexit

How the readership of the main national papers are split on Brexit

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YouGov have just published a poll which shows how readers of different newspapers are viewing brexit and how they would vote in a new referendum. For some reason the Sun does not appear to be included. In broad terms the results are what you would expect with Guardian readers being staunchly for Remain while Express ones are for Leave. But there are some surprises. To me the big one is the Daily Telegraph where the split is 45% remain to…

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