Browsed by
Category: General Election

Is YouGov 10% contributing to GB’s referendum trap?

Is YouGov 10% contributing to GB’s referendum trap?

Can the leadership be challenged without Labour paying a price? Aside from the dramatic rise in street violence the issue that’s dominating the political scene is the growing threat of a revolt within the wider Labour movement over GB’s decision not to have a referendum on the EU treaty. There’s a report this morning that at least 40 Labour MPs are calling for talks on the EU plan to be re-opened and a number of unions are gathering forces ahead…

Read More Read More

Is Labour about to lose its poll lead?

Is Labour about to lose its poll lead?

Could Nick Palmer be right about the next round of surveys? In a post last night Nick Palmer – the Labour MP for Broxtowe and the first of any party to contribute to Politicalbetting under his own name – made an extraordinary prediction about the next round of polls. This is what he wrote: “I think we can all agree the media stories this week are mostly helpful to the Tories, so do Tories here expect to be back in…

Read More Read More

Has the media got wise to Gord’s policy stealing?

Has the media got wise to Gord’s policy stealing?

Are we seeing a change of the political terms of trade? When the chief secretary to the treasury, Andy Burnham (right) accepted an invitation to go on Newsnight on the day John Redwood’s Tory policy review was published he must have thought that his task was going to be easy. Just chuck in a few hand grenades about Cameron being forced to the right and then make the standard attacks on “unfunded Tory tax cuts”. Alas it was not to…

Read More Read More

What’ll be the political consequences of a Basra pull-out?

What’ll be the political consequences of a Basra pull-out?

How can they stop it looking like the fall of Saigon? The above picture was taken on April 30th 1975 and shows the last American helicopter as it was about to fly the final group of people from the roof of the US embassy to safety. Shortly afterwards the city fell and the United States had lost the Vietnam war. That defeat had a huge impact on US politics which still has consequences today. So what’s going to be the…

Read More Read More

ICM: 24% of Labour voters could desert over EU referendum

ICM: 24% of Labour voters could desert over EU referendum

How dangerous is Brown’s anti-referendum stance for Labour? A new ICM poll in the Daily Mail this morning suggest that nearly a quarter of all Labour voters could desert if the Brown government continues to refuse to hold a referendum on the planned EU constitutional changes. A total of 82% of those questioned said the revised treaty should be ratified by a referendum and not by parliament. Amongst declared Labour supporters 80% backed the referendum idea with 54% of them…

Read More Read More

Should Deborah advise Gord to gamble on October?

Should Deborah advise Gord to gamble on October?

Is there the evidence to make the toughest call in British politics? This is Deborah Mattinson, joint chief executive of Opinion Leader Research, a pollster for the Labour party for the past two decades and the person who will advise Brown on whether to go for an early general election. If Brown does decide to go in October it will be because Mattinson is convinced not only that Labour cannot lose but that Gord will almost certainly top Tony’s 2005…

Read More Read More

Is there any value on the general election markets?

Is there any value on the general election markets?

Does the chart say it all? It is some time since this chart, showing how punters are assessing Labour and Tory chances of winning most seats has been featured here. It illustrates the changing views of the main parties chances based on the price available on Betfair converted into an implied probability. The steep Brown bounce is there for all to see and the issue is whether the Labour price will harden even more as the party consolidates its poll…

Read More Read More

Is the Tory tax plan a gift to Gordon?

Is the Tory tax plan a gift to Gordon?

Are we seeing the start of the general election campaign? All the information coming out of the Brown camp before June 27th was that his first target would be to push the Tories from the centre ground by forcing them to the right. If that indeed was the plan then there will be delight within Labour this morning. For the Tory John Redwood policy commission is publishing its findings today and the headline grabbing move is a plan to, as…

Read More Read More