Will this create instability amongst the the Tories? Developments in the McCann story and the Indy’s idiosyncratic approach to tabloid journalism have kept Brown’s speech off many of the front pages this morning and I reproduce above those that I can find online that are making the event their main lead. By far and away the most significant is the Sun which is continuing with its high profile campaign to get a referendum on the EU treaty. This is the…
Is there any evidence that Tory voters are switching? Labour party spinners are putting it about that a new type of voter is emerging that they are calling “Gordon Conservatives”. These are people, it is claimed, who voted Tory last time but have now decided to go with Labour. According to Ben Brogan over the weekend Labour research has started to identify this group. Because this is coming from private polls we cannot see the data but from my research…
How long will the teasing go on? Brown’s long-awaited first speech as leader of the Labour party and Prime Minister is well under way and, no doubt, every word and phrase will be scrutinised to see if he is providing hints about the election date. Could Gordon the cautious be prepared to gamble everything on the polls and risk seeing his premiership ending in just 120 days? We shall see. Meanwhile the spread markets on general election commons seats now…
But should Brown be worried by the Sun’s coverage? The latest opinion poll to be published, Ipsos-Mori in the Sun, has good news for Labour and bad news for the Tories and the Lib Dems. We don’t know yet, however, when the survey was actually carried out. If previous months are anything to go by then the fieldwork probably took place before yesterday’s ICM poll. These are the shares with changes on the last Ipsos-Mori poll in August – CON…
Do today’s comments close down the 2007 election suggestions? I have just listened to the online playback of this afternoon’s “The World the Weekend” and I am almost convinced, like Ben Brogan, that Gord’s loyal aide for more than a decade, Ed Balls has effectively ruled out the possibility of an October election. If anybody’s going to know what’s in Brown’s mind Balls is. Listen for yourself and draw you own conclusion. It’s towards the end of the programme. The…
Labour’s lead moves from 8% to 6% The main driver of the week’s heightened speculation that Brown would chance everything on an October election was the Guardian’s ICM poll on Wednesday showing the Labour lead moving up three points to 8%. Today a new poll from the same pollster in the Sunday Mirror has that down to 6% which while not very significant in itself could affect the mood and particularly the sentiment on the betting markets. As I reported…
Is there still value betting on Labour? The top box shows the latest commons seat spreads from the market that I play the most – how many seats Labour will get at the next election. Underneath are the spreads that existed on June 27th – just as Gordon was being driven back down the Mall after becoming Prime Minister. This is a betting exchange where the prices are not set by the bookmaker but what individual punters are prepared to…
Will today’s YouGov poll dampen the election speculation? The promised YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph is out this morning and the numbers are nothing like the ones that the hoaxer, cj, tried to suggest on the site overnight Thursday-Friday. He is now banned permanently from publishing comments here. The shares are with changes on the last YouGov poll at the weekend – CON 33%(-1): LAB 39%(nc): LD 16%(+1). So not much change except a one point boost for the…