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Category: General Election

General election and other site announcements

General election and other site announcements

Bob Worcester: The founder of Mori and one of the most pre-eminent people in the UK polling industry, Sir Robert Worcester will be joining us for an hour or so tomorrow to discuss, amongst other things, the latest Ipsos-Mori poll – due out in the Observer in the morning. I am hoping that Bob’s appearance will start a new feature on PBC when leading figures in the polling industry can talk about how they see things going. Comment publishing arrangements….

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What more evidence does Brown need?

What more evidence does Brown need?

Two polls give Labour doubt digit leads Back in May and June I was among a number of commentators who were saying that we would really have to wait until November before we would get a clear view of how the new leadership at Number 10 had changed the political environment. Well it is looking as though that November suggestion might be when the general election itself takes place. The polls have moved so firmly and decisively in Labour’s favour…

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Does too much of Labour’s new support come from non-voters?

Does too much of Labour’s new support come from non-voters?

Why is it that the lead amongst 2005 voters is only about 3%? One of the great new polling sources that we have now that we didn’t have last time is a breakdown, segment by segment, of people’s current intentions based on what they did at the last election. This approach was pioneered by ICM just twelve months ago and now all the telephone pollsters present their detailed data in this way. This gives poll-watchers a whole range of new…

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What will Gord make of the council by elections?

What will Gord make of the council by elections?

Do these make the general election decision even harder? Having worked for BBC national news for nearly a decade and a half and having been closely involved in politics since I cannot remember a Friday morning when a batch of local councils by elections has made the headlines. The only times the news editors have taken notice of these contests in the past has been when the BNP or similar parties has made progress. Maybe it was the revelation at…

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Is Gord waiting for the polls after this?

Is Gord waiting for the polls after this?

What margin would trigger a visit to see the Queen? For all the bravado, leaking, teasing and wind-ups Gord is not going to risk his premiership on the basis of current polling evidence. What he needs to see is how the public react after they’ve been exposed to the Tories and, in particular, to the big speech by David Cameron. For much of the poll movement to Labour has been driven by the almost total news blackout from the Tories…

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Why is the Times leading on the plagiarism suggestions?

Why is the Times leading on the plagiarism suggestions?

Will this impede Brown’s election momentum? Reproduced here is the front page of this morning’s Times showing the lead story which won’t please Number 10. For Labour’s new leader is accused of “rehashing old phrases from Bill Clinton and Al Gore without attribution in his first speech to a Labour conference as Prime Minister”. The report describes a study of Brown conference speech on Monday which “shows a marked similarity between parts of Mr Brown’s speech and big set-piece speeches…

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Is this the day you should be buying Labour seats?

Is this the day you should be buying Labour seats?

Why are the spread markets not reacting? The above shows the latest commons seat spread prices from two of the main markets – IGIndex and Spreadfair – and from where I sit these levels simply do not fit with the polling evidence. We are nearly at the stage, surely, where it’s going to be very difficult for Brown and Labour to pull back from the general election challenge. Last night’s stunning poll showing C33-LAB44-LD13 will almost certainly prove to be…

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So will 11 Gordons influence the election decision?

So will 11 Gordons influence the election decision?

The Lib Dems move down as Labour hits a staggering 44% A YouGov poll for Channel Four news taken in the immediate aftermath of of Brown’s conference speech gives Labour an amazing 44% share with the Lib Dems down to 13%. These are the shares with the changes on the last poll from the internet pollster – CON 33% (nc): LAB 44% (+5): LD 13% (-3). This is the lowest Lib Dem share from YouGov since Kennedy moved on and…

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