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Category: General Election

How Dave’s speech changed the ratings

How Dave’s speech changed the ratings

Was it the IHT changes or the speech that prompted the Tory bounce? There’s been a lot of commentary about what prompted the Tory polling surge with Labour saying it was the inheritance tax proposals that were the driving force. This appears to be just spin – and is not supported by the detailed data. The above is from yesterday’s Populus poll in the Times and records how voting intentions changed between those questioned before Cameron’s speech on Wednesday afternoon…

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Two thirds of Tories want a November election

Two thirds of Tories want a November election

Can Gord call it off without being damaged? There can be absolutely no doubt that if it had not been for the post-Blackpool polls this weekend would effectively have been the first phase of the general election campaign. So much was in place, a series of key announcements has been careful choreographed and a date with Gord had been pencilled into the Queen’s diary. The big question is how can Brown now pull back from that position without suffering too…

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Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

There’ll Be No Election This Year Apart from a brief wobble last week, I have always been sceptical about the prospects for an Autumn election. I shall now stick my neck out, and say there will be no election this year. There is no point in Gordon Brown calling an early election unless he can, at the very least, be sure of retaining Labour’s majority of 64. Should Labour be returned with a smaller majority, his authority will be weakened….

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How “certainty to vote” is behind the Tory bounce

How “certainty to vote” is behind the Tory bounce

And Lib Dems switch to the Tories – not Labour The boss of Populus, Andrew Cooper, has very kindly given me advanced sight of the detail from today’s poll in the Times and I reproduce part of it above. There are two main features:- A big disparity between the responses of Labour and Tory voters when it comes to their likelihood to vote and evidence that Labour is not picking up as many 2005 Lib Dem supporters as they had…

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ICM revised – it’s neck and neck

ICM revised – it’s neck and neck

Dave appears on the polling graphic for the first time The ICM figures have now been revised and the shares from the latest polls are CON 38%(+5): LAB 38% (-1): LD 16% (-4) My guess is that in the rush to get the figures out not all the final aspects had been checked. Now it has and these will be really pleasing figures for the Tories. The general election date betting markets have seen a lot of movement and the…

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Labour’s Populus lead down by 7%

Labour’s Populus lead down by 7%

The Times pollster reports a margin of just 3% The second poll of the night, just out, is from Populus for the Times and has these figures compared with the last survey at the weekend – CON 36% (+5): LAB 39% (-2): LD 15% (-2). This and ICM, expected later, are probably the most significant survey of the nights because they do weight by past vote and does weight by the likelihood to vote. A margin of 3% starts to…

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It’s four Gordons from YouGov

It’s four Gordons from YouGov

And three other polls are on the way The first of a spate of polls that will come overnight has just been announced by Channel 4 news. These are the figures compared with the last poll from the firm last Saturday – CON 36%(+4): LAB 40%(-3): LD 13%(-2) Of course this followed the massive coverage of Blackpool and the good reception to Cameron’s speech. Will it be sustained? I don’t know. Other polls coming up overnight are Populus in the…

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Will Labour polling dampen the election speculation?

Will Labour polling dampen the election speculation?

Marginals said to be “patchy and extremely tight” We are going to have to wait until this evening before we see the first post-Blackpool opinion poll and that should be from the YouGov panel on this evening’s Channel 4 News. But according to Steve Richards in the Independent the prospect of an early election has receded following the Tory conference and reaction to Cameron’s speech. He notes that Brown’s “inner circle is understood to have become more cautious about an…

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