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Category: General Election

Is this what Gord’s opening by attacking the Ashcroft cash?

Is this what Gord’s opening by attacking the Ashcroft cash?

Should Labour go through all this grief for £72,970? Three developments in the past 24 hours have convinced me that Brown is taking a mega-risk by seeking to stop Michael Ashcroft money going to support pre-election campaigning in Tory marginals while doing nothing about the general issue of political funding. Firstly it opens up again the whole issue of “cash for honours” which was seized on by Lib Dem leadership hopeful, Chris Huhne, yesterday when he said that there was…

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Why did Gordon use the BJ4BW phrase here?

Why did Gordon use the BJ4BW phrase here?

Has this become Brown’s Bournemouth gift to Cameron? After FPTP and the WLQ political anoraks are going to have to get used to another acronym – BJ4BW the new short-form for “British Jobs for British Workers” which is, of course, illegal under EU law. There’s lots of comment in the Sundays this morning on the political impact immigration and the number of immigrant workers in the UK with the Independent on Sunday commentator, John Rentoul, focussing on the origins of…

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Should Tory punters take a reality check?

Should Tory punters take a reality check?

Are the Tories really better placed to win an overall majority than Labour? The chart shows the changing market views on whether it’ll be a Labour majority, Tory majority or a hung parliament with the prices expressed as an implied probability. As can be seen the big change in the past few days has been for the Tories to squeeze ahead of Labour in the market assessment of which of the main parties is likely to secure an overall majority,…

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What if these headlines had reported a 13% Tory deficit?

What if these headlines had reported a 13% Tory deficit?

Would Blackpool have been different if a poll had not been suppressed? November 1st, the day Labour was planning for the general election, is probably a good moment to reflect on the amazing events of the past six weeks. And one element that nobody’s really focussed on is the impact of Observer decision not to publish on September 29th an Ipsos-Mori poll showing the Tories 13% behind. For if it had been the splash lead rather than what did appear…

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ICM finds support for UKIP down to ZERO percent

ICM finds support for UKIP down to ZERO percent

What are the implications of the collapse of the anti-EU party? On June 10th 2004 in the last European elections, UKIP received 2.7 million votes and gained twelve seats in the European Parliament. Their national vote share of just under 17% put them in third place ahead of the Lib Dems and all the talk was of the party doing terrible damage to Michael Howard Conservatives in the ensuing general election. When that vote came, just eleven months later, the…

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Lib Dems at 18% as ICM reports 5% Tory lead

Lib Dems at 18% as ICM reports 5% Tory lead

But the Tories take the hit for the LD surge After predicting on yesterday’s ComRes thread that the ICM October poll for the Guardian would report a 5% Tory lead I feel a bit of satisfaction that that indeed is what has come about. These are the shares with changes on the last survey from the pollster tkaen in the immediate aftermath of the Tory conference CON 40% (-3): LAB 35% (-1): LD 18% (+4) Also last week I was…

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ComRes data: the biggest shift has been LAB>CON

ComRes data: the biggest shift has been LAB>CON

It’s not just been LDs moving to the Tories? Whenever a new poll comes out now the standard explanation from Labour observers is to observe that much of the change that has seen the Tories move above a 40% share in six consecutive surveys has been the result of Lib Dems switching. Once a replacement for Ming is in place, it is argued, then the Tories will decline. We saw that overnight with the Independent‘s ComRes survey that had with…

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Tories take 8% lead with ComRes

Tories take 8% lead with ComRes

..and a boost for the Lib Dems According to Ben Brogan of the Daily Mail tomorrow’s ComRes poll in the Independent will give the Tories an 8% lead. The shares, with changes on last month, are reported to be CON 41% (+7): LAB 33% (-3): LD 16% (nc) ComRes operates like Populus and ICM and weights by both past vote and certainty to vote. Its past vote formula has been less favourable to Labour than the other two. These figures…

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