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Category: General Election

Apart from the Chequers wobble Leave voters broadly staying with the Tories and Mrs May

Apart from the Chequers wobble Leave voters broadly staying with the Tories and Mrs May

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YouGov’s “Best PM” ratings stable amongst Leave voters But Corbyn struggling amongst GE2017 LAB voters As we approach what could be a very critical time in British politics with a possible Brexit deal only weeks away James Bowley has shared with me the above charts based on looking at the detailed data of all the published YouGov voting intention polls since the last general election. The good news for the Tories and Mrs May is that after recovering from the…

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After 30 years the curtains close on regular Guardian/ICM polls

After 30 years the curtains close on regular Guardian/ICM polls

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The longest lasting poll series in British politics comes to an end. This is something of a sad moment in British politics. The longest lasting polling series, ICM for the Guardian, has come to an end after a total of 30 years. Polls have been running from the firm in the paper at least monthly since January 1989 when ICM replaced Marplan as the paper’s voting intention provider. The first one, as seen in the chart above, was in January…

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It is now a 33% chance on the betting markets that there’ll be a general election next year

It is now a 33% chance on the betting markets that there’ll be a general election next year

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Chart Betdata.io ATTENTION “Brenda from Bristol”! I can’t remember a time when there has been so much uncertainty about the short and medium-term of British politics. With the Article 50 date for Brexit less than 6 months away and still no deal with the EU it is extremely difficult to project what’s going to happen in the coming months. Labour is pressing for a general election and will use its MP numbers and what other power it has in the…

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In October 2017 LAB had an average poll lead of 2.4% – this October Corbyn’s party is 3% behind

In October 2017 LAB had an average poll lead of 2.4% – this October Corbyn’s party is 3% behind

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The polls turned in March which coincided with Corbyn’s response to Salisbury and antisemitism becoming a big issue October 2018 voting intention polls October 2017  voting intention polls Survation’s chart shows the timing of the switch   The Survation chart shows the LAB-CON splits in its Westminster voting intention polling since GE2017 when, of course, the firm was the most accurate pollster. Since then it has generally been recording the best figures for Labour and at times, like at the…

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LAB would struggle to win a snap election with 50% of GE2017 LAB voters not rating Corbyn as “best PM”

LAB would struggle to win a snap election with 50% of GE2017 LAB voters not rating Corbyn as “best PM”

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His 50% LAB voter rating compares with 80% of GE2017 Tories for May While all the focus this week has been on TMay’s chances of survival the PM and her party can take comfort in the latest “Best PM” ratings from YouGov in which those polled are given just two options – her and Corbyn. In recent weeks TMay has been regaining her position and is now up from a low of 31% overall naming her to 38%. Corbyn is…

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To win the next election LAB need to find converts and it’s hard to see where these are coming from

To win the next election LAB need to find converts and it’s hard to see where these are coming from

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Current polling finds LAB shedding support – not gaining it With all the current speculation about a new election and the possibility of Corbyn becoming PM the latest polling is being sidelined and the question of where LAB’s required new support is going to come from is hardly mentioned. The shock result at the last election has impacted greatly on both main parties in very different ways. The Tories fear the Labour threat and can’t take comfort in their polling…

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A reminder of how GE2015 UKIP voters voted at GE2017

A reminder of how GE2015 UKIP voters voted at GE2017

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The most recent GB wide opinion polls, as collated by Wikipedia. https://t.co/XJhbZIFOjo pic.twitter.com/PK3Ng1vZTl — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 13, 2018 History suggests assuming Kippers will strongly back the Tories when UKIP don’t stand is a mistake. Since the announcement of the Chequers deal in July UKIP have experienced a bit of a polling surge with some polls having them polling 7% and 8% but generally in the 4% to 6% range. I’m expecting UKIP at the next general election will repeat…

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DUP-No10 relations mean that 6/1 for Corbyn as Next PM is value

DUP-No10 relations mean that 6/1 for Corbyn as Next PM is value

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There is enough uncertainty over the next year to give him a decent chance When Ian Paisley said “No!”, people believed that he meant what he said. The Big Man may be gone but his party lives on and it would be extremely unwise for anyone to assume that when Arlene Foster says “no”, she means any different from her predecessor. The DUP do not bluff. Ever. They might occasionally change their minds but when they do, they do so…

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