Will the week’s media spotlight have produced a higher LD share? Here’s a ballsy prediction that could fall flat on its face – the Populus poll for March that should be due out this evening will not show a reduction for the Lib Dems but will have the party holding its own or moving forward. On the face of it this would appear counter-intuitive given some of the savagings Nick Clegg has had to endure over the past few days…
Why the new confidence on the spread markets? While all main focus has been on the US elections there’s been a quiet move to the Tories on the spread betting markets on the number of seats the parties will get at the general election. This is the form of betting where you “trade” on the seat numbers and where, if you predict it right, you can make short-term profits to pocket now even though it is at least a year…
Does anybody out there care about EU matters? After last night’s big commons vote rejecting a referendum on the Lisbon treats it is perhaps worth looking at how all of this ranks in the public’s mind. For once again there’s strong polling evidence that it barely registers as an issue that voters care about. For after a period when the big political story has been Britain’s relationship with the EU the latest Ipsos-MORI monitor is out with, amongst other things…
Interesting article in the Guardian by the commentator who used to be one of his most enthusiastic supporters, Jackie Ashley. She believe that Brown is being too timid when it comes to picking fights and concludes: “…unless the prime minister has the courage to pick fights with powerful interests, then it really is all over. Labour’s assessment of the Tories as lightweight and meaningless is quite wrong. Cameron has won his advantage by taking some brave decisions, not by staying…
But voters think the Speaker, Michael Martin, should resign The February survey by YouGov for the Daily Telegraph this morning suggests that public opinion is remaining pretty stable with hardly any movement on the last poll from the firm ten days ago. The figures with changes on the last survey from the poll ten days ago are: CON 40% (nc): LAB 33% (-1): LD 16% (nc) The figures mean that in every singly YouGov survey since Brown’s October U-turn over…
Did Cameron benefit from the Auschwitz row exposure? A new poll by ComRes for tomorrow’s Independent shows a three point move back to the Tories since last month. The shares are CON 41% (+3): LAB 30% (nc): LD 17% (nc) If the pollster was following its normal pattern then the fieldwork would have taken place from Friday until Sunday when one of the big political stories was the row of David Cameron’s Auschwitz trip press release. My theory, as regular…
A new poll with a sample of 2118 people is just out from YouGov for the Economist and shows Labour moving up a notch and the Tories down a point. The fieldwork was carried out from Monday through till Wednesday and so covered the Northern Rock nationalisation. The vote shares compared with the last YouGov poll at the weekend are CON 40% (-1): LAB 34% (+2): LD 16% (nc). The Tories will be pleased to remain in the 40s while…
The poll that caught me by surprise My apologies for not getting a thread up earlier but the latest Guardian ICM poll has taken me by surprise – I wasn’t expecting it until next Tuesday which would have followed the paper’s normal pattern. Also the fieldwork took place at the end of the half term week in many places when a lot of people are away. Pollsters tend to avoid such periods because they have thrown up odd results in…