Will Glasgow East see the first sign of an exodus? There has been much written already about the potential fortunes of the Labour Party in Glasgow East, and as remarkable as it seems, the 13,507 majority currently enjoyed by David Marshall was not even enough to prevent the SNP from being ‘bookies’ favourites’ when the markets first opened. The punters on the site, far more knowledgeable on the specifics of this constituency than I, have made me wonder how we…
Highlands and Islands: (7 seats) Scotland underwent changes to its Westminster constituencies between 2001 and 2005 when the number of seats was reduced from 72 to 59. Holyrood still operates on the pre 2005 boundaries but has 73 constituencies due to Orkney and Shetland being separated into 2 constituencies. Scotland has 32 single tier local authorities. I would expect the 4 main parties to go into the election with the following shares of vote in Scotland: SNP 30-35%, LAB 30-35%,…
How much does this add to the problems of Darling and Brown? In terms of public interest the main story in the Times this morning will probably have less immediate impact on public opinion than last night’s news of the rejection by the commons of the proposals to deal with MPs’s expenses. But if the paper, which appears to have this as an exclusive, has this right then it will, surely, be another hammer blow to what used to be…
Is this a massive own-goal for those who voted for the status quo? If I was a PPC facing one of the 172 MPs who voted down the “John Lewis” list this evening I would work through the night tonight on a leaflet to hammer the incumbent so it can be delivered over the weekend. The MPs of all parties who opposed the changes were quite simply dumb and for their lack of political prowess and insensitivity alone they deserve…
Is it “the economy, stupid” The above table is reproduced from the June Ipsos-MORI “Issues Index” survey which has been carried out face-to-face in the same manner for decades. What’s unique about this polling series is that two questions are put totally unprompted, and the pollster has detailed records going back to the 70s. The first asks respondents to name the single most important issue facing the country while the second involves people naming all the issues they think are…
Guest slot by HenryG Manson Brown’s first year has been a real rollercoaster ride and most of us in the Labour Party are feeling rather unsettled and at times wanting to get off. To read the views Westminster commentators you’d be hard pressed to find anyone you thinks Brown can successfully tie his shoe-laces at the moment, never mind lead a dramatic poll recovery. The named leader polling offers grim reading. At the moment David Cameron is winning on pretty…
Would Tory leads be as big if older methodologies were still used? One factor that has completely changed the backcloth against which UK political life operates has been the almost total overhaul of the polling industry since the 2001 election to deal with what was the systemic problem of Labour over-statement. It is my contention that if the 2001 line-up of pollsters and polling methods were still in place then the current Labour poll deficits would be on a much…
The Brown anniversary surveys come thick and fast After a by-election and two new national opinion polls to digest there’s another new survey tonight – by ComRes for tomorrow’s Independent. This was carried out on Wednesday and Thursday so is the most up-to-date of the polls. The shares are with changes on the last ComRes poll a fortnight ago are: CON 46% (+2): LAB 25% (-1): LD 18% (+1). Both the Tory share, 46%, and the 21% margin over Labour…