Browsed by
Category: General Election

Where do the Lib Dems go from here?

Where do the Lib Dems go from here?

What happens when the third party works – but doesn’t win? A strongly argued post by the Norfolk Blogger, Nick Starling, has been picked up by several in the blogsphere for the way it powerfully sets out the dilemma facing the Lib Dems. Reflecting on the massive changes in the political scene Nick notes that Cameron has “turned around the fortunes of the Conservative “brand”, removed the tarnish from it and has stopped people feeling embarrassed to be openly Tory….

Read More Read More

The Tories hit 47% with MORI

The Tories hit 47% with MORI

Will this increase the nervousness amongst MPs in the marginals? The pollster which has been operating in the UK for longer than anybody else has just published their Monitor for July 2008 and it shows a move towards the Conservatives and the biggest lead for the party in decades. These are the figures with comparisons on a month ago CON 47% (+2): LAB 27% (-2): LD 15% (-2). These figures, like all MORI surveys are based on those “certain to…

Read More Read More

Labour’s ICM deficit down to 15%

Labour’s ICM deficit down to 15%

Could the worst now be over for Labour? The July poll from ICM for the Guardian is out this evening and shows a small recovery for Labour. After June’s 20% deficit the July poll has it down to just 15%. It says something about the current political environment that this should be seen as good news for Brown and his ministers. Even so such a poll, if repeated in a general election, would according to the Anthony Wells calculator, produce…

Read More Read More

Is Brown’s plight much worse than John Major’s?

Is Brown’s plight much worse than John Major’s?

Do these 95-97 ICM polls undermine the swing-back theorists? Anybody trying to predict whether Brown’s Labour has any chance at all of turning things round should look at the above table very carefully. For it shows all the Guardian’s ICM surveys for the period from 21 months before the May 1 1997 general election which, of course, brought Blair’s Labour to power in a landslide. Just compare the polling figures from the August of 1995 with what happened at the…

Read More Read More

Are we going to see a record Labour deficit?

Are we going to see a record Labour deficit?

What record will be broken later today? John Rentoul has news on his blog that there is a significant poll to be published in the Independent on Sunday, expected from ComRes later today. He writes: “We have a ComRes poll in The Independent on Sunday tomorrow. Another record will be broken. We have also asked people whether they agree or disagree with the following statements: Britain should never have become involved in Iraq British troops should be withdrawn from Iraq…

Read More Read More

PB Election Countdown: What makes marginals different?

PB Election Countdown: What makes marginals different?

Blair Freebairn on where the election will be decided (This is a repeat of a guest contribution that was featured last October and offered a an original and convincing insight into the characteristics of the key battle-grounds. Blair’s piece has had a big impact on my thinking and I thought it would be worth a second run – MS) The Pirahã tribe of the Amazon has words for one, two and many. Number-wise that’s it. The count for an STV…

Read More Read More

Is this the backcloth to Clegg’s tax cutting approach?

Is this the backcloth to Clegg’s tax cutting approach?

What should the Lib Dems do when the Tories are advancing? The latest Lib Dem approach to taxation and public spending is very different from what we are used to from the party – remember the penny extra in the pound for education and them being the only party at previous elections prepared to increase rates for the well off? This is going to cause fierce debates within Clegg’s party but I wonder whether the new young leader is sensing…

Read More Read More

Does Labour still have a 28% chance of victory?

Does Labour still have a 28% chance of victory?

Surely the price should have moved out much more? As we end the parliamentary year I thought it would be useful to look at how punters have seen the next general election since the market was opened just after the last one in May 2005. The chart tracks the betting prices on “who will win most seats” expressed as an implied probability. The remarkable thing, given all the gloom and doom about Labour’s prospects from the Westminster village, is how…

Read More Read More