What we need to know is how people will vote? As someone who uses polls to try to predict elections and win bets I’ve always been very wary of polling questions which ask respondents for their opinion – not for an indication of what they would do in an election. This based on the last two general elections only about 60% of people actually vote so the results you get from the opinion questions are distorted by the views of…
Does the government need to do less – but do it better? A powerful critique by former minister, Nick Raynsford, in the latest New Statesman of the efforts by the Brown government to win back public support has been picked up by many of the papers this morning. Inevitably this is being seen as part of the moves to back the leadership ambitions of David Miliband. Ranysford writes: “…There is no single ‘Get Out of Jail’ card, and it is…
His final PMQs before the 2007 recess and the election U-turn If you’ve got a few minutes just click on the picture above to watch Brown take the last PMQs of July 2007 when everything was going so right for him. Watching his body language, listening to a very different intonation in his voice, looking at how he dealt with Cameron and it is as though you are in a different era. He’s relaxed, confident, and delivered very effectively the…
Revised But more ammunition for those who want Gord out The News of the World has a poll from YouGov, giving David Cameron’s Conservatives yet another healthy over Gordon Brown’s Labour government – 20 percentage points although it is down a couple of notches from the last survey from the firm nine days ago. Amongst the non-voting intention questions nearly half of those who took part said Brown should quit and and 49% say they would prefer Tony Blair as…
What are the chances of him still being there on election day? Probably the best long-term market where we can plot trends on betting attitudes to Gordon’s survival is the one from Betfair on the line-up of party leaders at the general election. When it was opened, in June 2007, Ming Campbell was in the mix. He’s now moved on and the “runner” that reflects views on the PM’s survival is the Brown/Cameron price. Surprisingly this market has not attracted…
Henry G Manson looks at the record to assess the chances One of the first things sports punters try to assess is recent form. In political betting this information is scarce and can make for a punting minefield. However last year’s Labour deputy leadership results provide a form guide of sorts for a leadership contest this side of an election. Despite recent exuberance, it doesn’t look at all good for David Miliband who is leading the charge from the Blairite…
Or is it one more thing that they can be accused of dithering on? There’s lots in the papers this morning about the apparent plan to have a stamp duty “holiday” on property purchases of less than £250k in a effort to boost the depressed housing market. The problem is that raising the possibility without taking immediate action can have precisely the opposite effect – those people on the point of buying a house might be deterred for a few…
Would PM Miliband get the same fawning treatment? Exactly a year ago today the Guardian asked breathlessly whether any previous incoming prime minister had had such a first month in office having to deal with one “crisis” after another. To recap there had been some storms, a failed terrorist attack in Glasgow and some animals had got ill. Out of the ordinary? To a limited degree but nothing on the scale that several other incoming prime ministers had had to…