Does Brown really have a chance of saving the day? There’s an interesting piece by Kevin Maguire of the Mirror quoting an as yet to be published article by Peter Kellner of YouGov suggesting that Labour might still have a chance. The arguments are ones we have seen before – governments, it is said recover from mid-term lows and we all know that the Tories need a vote margin of 6% just to be equal on seats and a 10%…
Could this add to Dave’s problems with right-wingers? The first paragraph of the Guardian’s editorial today is featured above and raises a question that is quite revolutionary for the paper – the idea that a Tory government might not be the worst possible outcome at the general election. Revolutionary because one of the bedrock certainties of the media and politics is that the Guardian is the most anti-Tory of what used to be called the broad-sheet press. Just recall the…
Even without the “adjustments” things look awful One of the nagging doubts at the back of my mind about the current Tory poll leads is that much of it could be down to modern polling techniques. Could it be, I’ve been asking myself as I work out how much to risk on the spread markets, that part of Labour’s deficits are down to the adjustments that pollsters make and not fundamental shifts of opinion? The new polling techniques have not…
Will the Birmingham away-day keep Gord in his job? Well there they are after a summer of apparent discontent and whispering and the cabinet all travel to Birmingham to hold the first meeting outside London for ninety years. Every single one of them joins in by doing outside public events before the meeting itself which receives much more media attention than usual. And judging by the statements of loyalty and support afterwards it appears that this novel move by Brown…
Is now the moment to resume spread-betting? Ever though Labour has been in serious trouble since March budget there has been a marked reluctance punters to acknowledge the evidence of the polls and bet on the Tories and against Labour on the commons spread betting markets. Quite why this should have been I do not know especially if you compare the above seat numbers with UKPolling Report projections of what the latest polls suggest if there was a uniform national…
Or is Chris Hune indulging in a little wishful thinking? Chris Huhne, the Lib Dem spokesman on Home Affairs, has written an article for LibDem Voice that seeks to reassure activists the party will in fact do better at the next election than the prophets of doom suggest. He writes: “The new conventional wisdom at Westminster is that the Conservatives are heading for an overall majority at the next election, and that the Liberal Democrats are therefore bound to take…
What’s the point of ousting Gord if Labour would do no better? It seems an age ago, but it was only the end of July, that David Miliband produced his famous Guardian article that was seen as a challenge to Brown’s leadership. The Foreign Secretary denied it of course but the widespread assumption was that he was a laying down a marker for a future leadership challenge. Since then, until today, there has been no proper polling evidence about the…
I was very struck by this post by ChrisD overnight. The only way I ever saw Gordon Brown still leading the Labour party through a GE, was if there was a good to certain chance they would win. Even if he was not openly challenged or quietly pushed, I have never bought the into the idea that he would therefore cling on till the bitter end to lead his troops into an absolutely certain defeat in 2010 like Major did…