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Category: General Election

How changing poll methodology is adding to Gord’s problems

How changing poll methodology is adding to Gord’s problems

Was “public sector weighting” behind MORI’s Tory 52%? One of the biggest polling changes that we’ve seen in years was introduced by Ipsos-MORI in the summer following a review after the London Mayoral elections. For in trying to work out why its surveys seemed to be over-stating Labour the firm discovered that people working in the public sector were being over-sampled. So a new calculation has been created and this has been one of the reasons why the firm is…

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Frank Luntz on the Labour leadership: September 2006

Frank Luntz on the Labour leadership: September 2006

Would the outcome be the same today? If you’ve got a quarter of an hour to spare check out this Frank Luntz focus group that was produced for Newnight in September 2006 – nine months before Blair stepped down. The picture shows the response of the group when they were asked if Gordon Brown should lead Labour into the next election. Just one person responded. Click the panel to watch the programme. At the time it was so controversial that…

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Will Gord really get a financial crisis poll boost?

Will Gord really get a financial crisis poll boost?

Or has the PM totally lost it with the electorate? The line that the Brown Bunker is arguing like mad is that their man is the only person who can steer the country through the stormy waters that are being faced as the world has to deal with the credit crunch. You can see why they are saying this – but what is the polling evidence? Just look at the table above from UK polling report showing every single published…

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Could Kitty be Labour’s Sarah Palin?

Could Kitty be Labour’s Sarah Palin?

Would a new completely new face in 2010 be a “game changer”? Over the past couple of hours I have been looking over ministerial lists, scouring Wikipedia biogs and viewing video clips to see if I can I identify a “Labour Sarah Palin”. My starting point is the notion that the only realistic way that Labour can stave off defeat in 20 months time is by replacing its leader with someone completely new and exciting – say by March 2010….

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Are we seeing the ending of the Tory voters’ strike?

Are we seeing the ending of the Tory voters’ strike?

Why understanding 1997 is the key to the 2010 result? There’s a widespread perception that in 1997 Tony Blair got his massive landslide victory because huge numbers of Tories switched. This is wrong and does not fit with the voting numbers – for Labour won even though it got fewer votes than Neil Kinnock secured five years earlier. In 1992 Labour chalked up 11,559,735 votes. Five years later Tony Blair got in with his party getting a smaller number 11,348,623….

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Is the fall of Thatcher still casting a shadow?

Is the fall of Thatcher still casting a shadow?

Guest slot by David Herdson – “Prime Ministers fall but rarely” That the events of November 1990 are still casting their shadow over British politics nearly eighteen years on is testament to not only their drama but also their rarity. Throughout the twentieth century, Margaret Thatcher was the only prime minister so unambiguously forced out by her own party. The others who left mid-term did so of their own accord, because of the lack of a parliamentary majority, through ill-health,…

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YouGov marginals poll points to a Tory majority of 110+

YouGov marginals poll points to a Tory majority of 110+

There’s a new poll out this afternoon from YouGov which was commissioned by Channel 4 news and which suggests that David Cameron is heading for a three-figure majority. The poll has been done on a format that I have never seen before – those questioned were limited to 60 key constituencies where Labour is defending majorities of between 6 per cent and 14 per cent. So it’s unlike the standard marginal polls that we have seen in the past where…

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How big a gaffe was this?

How big a gaffe was this?

Could relations with a McCain White House be undermined? Lots of coverage in the UK papers this morning of the article that appeared under Gordon Brown’s name in a specialised publication in which it appeared that the PM was backing Obama over McCain in the White House race. The gentle mocking by the McCain campaign is reflected in the headline in the panel above with the term – “The Coveted Gordon Brown endorsement”. The piece opens “Far be it from…

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