A day for humble pie from punters? There’s little doubt that Labour’s successful defence overnight of Glenrothes, and by such a margin, is a sensational result that has the potential to change the political landscape. It is also one in the eye for punters who got this terribly wrong. My initial call on this, just ten days ago, was to back Labour at prices that were then about 7/4. The opinion polls in Scotland were running in the party’s favour…
Should Westminster heed John Curtice’s words? While we wait for the polling stations to open in America let’s focus for three or four hours on the political situation in the UK and some timely words from Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University in today’s Independent. Under a headline “Banks bailout fails to boost Labour ratings” Curtice is quoted as saying: “..The mood of new-found optimism that seems to have enveloped the party at Westminster in recent weeks certainly seems to…
But are the marginals behaving differently? The Daily Telegraph YouGov poll for October is out this morning and shows almost no change on the last survey from the pollster a fortnight ago and is producing numbers fairly in line with other pollsters. The Tories will be relieved that the paper’s still has them comfortably in the 40s while Labour is only polling three points down on its general election level. There’s little doubt that the last month and a half…
What should Labour do about those who were drawn to Tony? One of the great polling developments of the past two years is that the three telephone firms that use past vote weighting are now providing data so you can see what those who said they voted for the main parties at the last general election plan to do at the next one. I’ve extracted the above numbers from the latest ComRes, ICM and Populus surveys and have sought to…
Is the environment only something we care about when we are prosperous? The chart above is from the latest Ipsos-MORI and shows responses to the firm’s unprompted “What do you thing are the main/important issues facing Britain today” which they have been asking in exactly the same way for more than two decades. As can be expected the current top topic raised by respondents was the economy. But just look at the way “green” concerns have been declining. When your…
Should spread punters now be buying Labour? There’s a new ComRes poll out for the Independent which could make worrying reading for the Tories. Although the margin over Labour is down by just one point the last ComRes poll was showing the worst figures for the Tories of all the pollsters. As ever the Independent’s report of its poll is highly misleading because the comparisons it uses are with the last survey it published – not the last survey by…
The Independent on Sunday..“..Peter Mandelson’s last act as European Trade Commissioner was to advocate new trade rules that will directly benefit the Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska..Less than a month ago, in one of his final speeches before being recalled to the Cabinet and after he accepted hospitality on the Russian’s yacht, Lord Mandelson announced a new EU trade strategy giving multinational companies freer access to raw materials, including scrap aluminium and natural minerals used in the production of the metal..Mr…
Why has he written to the Times today? One of the problems with having a “back story” like Peter Mandelson, fairly or unfairly, is that the default assumption is that you are up to no good. So what are we to make of the latest developments in “Yachtgate” where Mandy has written to the Times today to “explain” that his contacts with the Russian billionaire, Oleg Deripaska, went back two years further than previously publicly stated. So his first account…