How much of a certainty is a Cameron majority? Columns by the Independent’s Steve Richards are not normally my first point of reference but in his piece for the paper today he makes a valid point – the pundits are being premature in regarding a Tory victory as almost a certainty. We saw it in a number of pieces at the weekend and clearly the terrible spate of January polls after what appeared to be a Labour recovery has had…
Will she be given another seat so she can stay an MP? According to a comment on an earlier thread there are suggestions that Labour is trying to ensure that the Home Secretary, the Oxford-educated Jacqui Smith, is not thrown out of the commons at the next election. Of the leading cabinet members Jacqui’s seat at Redditch has the thinnest majority and stands to be lost with a swing of just 2.3%. This makes it Tory target number 41 and…
Are we being prepared for more revelations? Ever since the Sunday Times came out with its “££££ for laws” revelations last Sunday the paper has been acting as thought it had other material in the pipeline. First, it will be recalled, there was the sound recording of the conversation with one of the peers – that was released on Monday. Now, this afternoon, we have a video that was secretly shot of a second peer which is up on the…
CONSERVATIVES 43% (-2) LABOUR 32% (nc) LIB DEMS 16% (+2) Was this predicted by the betting markets? The January YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph is out and shows a small reduction in the Tory share and a small increase for the Lib Dem on compared with the last survey from the pollster the Sunday before last. The change is well within the margin of error so we can’t read too much into it. But do they never learn? This…
Are punters starting to get cold feet? As PB’s latest “The Money Says” Index – CON MAJ 54 (-2) – shows there’s been a slight move back against the Tories on the spread-betting markets where punters trade the number of seats the parties will get at the general election as though they were stocks and shares. The slip back of just two seats in the projected Tory majority is not that great but it has taken place since the ComRes…
What does this do to Gord’s core argument? A story that features big across many of the papers today is the IMF assessment that the slump’s impact will be worse worse in the coming year in Britain than in the US, Japan, Spain, Italy, France, Canada and Germany. As the Sun’s George Pascoe Watkins writes the warning is a “big blow” to Gordon Brown who has consistently claimed Britain is in a stronger position to handle a recession than other…
Are Labour’s focus groups giving it the thumbs up? We are barely fourteen months away from a formal election campaign having to start and one would assume that every single message that the main parties are trying to get over has been tested extensively in focus groups and other polling. What’s at stake is so important that anything that could influence voters in the key marginals has, surely, to be tested and tested to ensure that the parties are getting…
Should Dave have been allowed openings like this? Michael Settle of the Glasgow-based Herald sets out the scene and the dangers for Brown of Erminegate in the story that’s currently the lead on Google News UK Search. “.IT is the most toxic word in the political lexicon and is threatening to make a comeback – sleaze. The alarm in No 10 over “Erminegate” – denied allegations that four Labour peers were ready to accept money in return for amending government…