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Category: General Election

If there is an early general election punters have no clear view on the winner

If there is an early general election punters have no clear view on the winner

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange On Betfair CON and LAB level pegging For those looking to the betting markets to give a pointer to how a new General Election will go then I’m sorry but the current position is that Labour and the Conservatives are rated at exactly the same level to win most seats. If this is correct, then the deadlock will continue and the political stalemate that has been British politics for many years appears…

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Why punters have got it right making a 2019 general election a 45% chance

Why punters have got it right making a 2019 general election a 45% chance

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Following the latest developments in the Commons it is clear that the house as currently constituted is going to be troublesome for the prime minister whoever he or she is for as long as we don’t have a general election. Theresa May’s decision in April two years ago to go early to the country has proved to be something of a disaster and if indeed she had achieved what she was hoping to do then the parliamentary arithmetic would have…

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Where we are now summed up in two betting Tweets

Where we are now summed up in two betting Tweets

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?? Latest Brexit Odds ??1/3 UK holds European Elections in May8/11 2019 General Election2/1 2019 Referendum2/1 UK leaves with NO DEAL on April 12th — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) March 29, 2019 And on Betfair On Betfair a 2019 general election now a 54% chance@betdatapolitics pic.twitter.com/AZ4AyKmpDu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 29, 2019 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

What four years of Govey as EdSec did to the teaching vote

What four years of Govey as EdSec did to the teaching vote

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But was this more down to Dominic Cummings? With Theresa May’s long term prospects in the job not looking very good there’s a lot of focus in the betting markets on who will succeed her as Conservative leader and Prime Minister. Currently the joint favourites are the ex-Mayor and former Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson and the current environment secretary, Michael Gove. It is the electoral potency of the latter that this post is about particularly the way he ran Education…

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Labour’s path to victory. The seats that could put Labour in power

Labour’s path to victory. The seats that could put Labour in power

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Link to the map above Imagine, if you will, Jeremy Corbyn beaming and waving from the steps of 10 Downing Street, installed in power after a general election victory. On most current polls this looks unlikely: Labour are well adrift, perhaps as much as 10 points behind the Conservatives. Politics, however, is particularly volatile at present and Labour managed to turn around a much bigger deficit than that in 2017. Such fantasies or nightmares cannot be dismissed as fanciful just…

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Osborne’s Standard has surely got this right – TMay is in office but not in power

Osborne’s Standard has surely got this right – TMay is in office but not in power

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Today’s ?@EveningStandard?: PM is in office but not in power – as rebels take control, EU offers delay and Chancellor again suggests compromise deal pic.twitter.com/BAbPHLSf9c — George Osborne (@George_Osborne) March 14, 2019 As we move into the most difficult fortnight for a prime minister in decades the former Chancellor and now editor of The London Evening Standard, George Osborne, has come out with the above front page about Theresa May. He’s right. A situation where ministers feel able to ignore…

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In all of this 2019 remains betting favourite for “year of next general election”

In all of this 2019 remains betting favourite for “year of next general election”

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Betdata.io. chart based on Betfair exchange How punters are seeing the dramatic Brexit moves Given the parliamentary deadlock over Brexit it is understandable why an early General Election is relatively highly rated by punters. The chart above shows the betting over the past 6 months and although 2019 has been quite a bit higher, at 45%, it still retains its position as favourite even at 37%. Under the provisions of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act the next election is due…

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Conservative approach. The seats that will decide whether the Conservatives will form the next government

Conservative approach. The seats that will decide whether the Conservatives will form the next government

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Link to the map above. Ready for another general election? The last one was less than two years ago but with a hung Parliament dealing with a hugely controversial central question, the threat of another constantly hangs over us. Personally, I very much doubt whether we will see one before the due date in 2022 but as any Boy Scout would tell you, we would do well to be prepared. In theory there should be a boundary review implemented in…

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