Mail Online Or will it just keep the story going? The Brown apology story moves on a step this morning with comments by the PM in a Guardian interview in which he admits that that he could have taken tougher action to curb the financial markets during he period as Chancellor. I think the Mail story above has got the sense right – yes there are words of apology there but it’s arguable whether he’s gone far enough. Whatever it’s…
When can you make valid historical poll comparisons? Almost everyday, it seems, someone on a thread or a journalist will seek to make polling comparisons with the 1990s and each time it happens myself and others will try to explain which this is not as easy as it appears. For there has been such a revolution in the UK polling industry since the aftermath of the 1992 general election that you have to be very careful when you point to…
Updated CON 41(nc) LAB 31(nc) LD 17(+2) Is this too close to hung parliament territory? The March YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is now out and the numbers might cause a touch of concern in Team Cameron and offer a little bit of hope at Brown Central. For taking these numbers and assuming a uniform national swing and we are not far from the outcome being a hung parliament. But I must totally disagree with this statement in the…
Will the media even contemplate a success? Reading through the coverage a couple of weeks ago, and there was still some talk that a successful G20 summit in London – with President Obama appearing next to the Prime Minister on our shores – might provide the filip necessary for Labour to contemplate a Summer 2009 election. That seems a remote, if not faintly absurd, notion now. The Prime Minister’s Official Spokesman lashed out at the lobby for setting unrealistic expectations…
Guardian.co.uk Or could it be seen as a bit contrived? In his first speech since returning to work after the death of of son, Ivan, David Cameron will say “sorry” for his party’s failure to “to warn about the rising levels of corporate debt, banking debt and borrowing from abroad”. The real problem for the Tories here is that they aren’t in power and Cameron’s move could be dismissed as a bit contrived. After all none of the policy decisions…
Mail Online What are the trends in the key marginals? One of the key elements that “did” for the Major government in the post 1992 period was the collapse in house prices and the whole spectre of negative equity. For the value of someone property is one of the key determinants in how well or badly they view their personal economic futures. These things can have a lasting impression. Even in the 2005 general election campaign Labour was able to…
Is there anything to justify her favourite status? Just looking down the list of potential runners in the next Labour leader race betting and one names stands out, the current leader of the house and the person who won the deputy contest in June 2007, Harriet Harman. The best you can get on her is 10/3 – a price that owes a lot to her success in that election two years ago. But are we giving too much emphasis to…
RBS Will this be another big headache for Labour? One of the big services that the taxpayer-owned bank provides is RBS Streamline – a mechanism by which retailers and other others can offer credit/debit card facilities. As we move more and more away from cash this side of the bank’s business has grown and grown and RBS is now a leader in its field. So how come that the firm is now, apparently, subjecting those merchants who want to use…