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Category: General Election

Should we be re-assessing Labour leadership betting?

Should we be re-assessing Labour leadership betting?

Best Labour leadership odds Are Johnson and the two Eds the big losers? Until last Thursday my “picks” as Brown’s replacement were Alan Johnson if there was a contest before the general election and Ed Balls if it took place afterwards. My view was that the former’s more conciliatory style and background might make him an ideal choice to face Cameron while Ed Balls had, the formidable Damien McBride on his team. Other bets placed in the past five months,…

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Spread punters move against Labour

Spread punters move against Labour

Sporting Index Spread Markets PB “The Money Says Index”: CON MAJ 59 (+4) After our piece this morning and the “Smeargate” developments during the day the money has been going against Labour on the spread betting markets – where really serious political gamblers trade the number of seats that the parties will get at at the election as though they were stocks and shares. After a day of some activity the

..and the PB Index moves just 2 seats

..and the PB Index moves just 2 seats

Sporting Index Spread Markets PB “The Money Says Index”: CON MAJ 55 (+2) However much excitement there has been over the past four days it’s perhaps worth reminding ourselves that “Smear-gate”, or whatever you want to call it, has failed to persuade the serious political punters who play the spread markets to pile onto the Tories or to sell Labour seats. The latest SPIN spreads shown above have just advanced one seat forward for the Tories with the Labour spread…

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Has Gord’s world just got a bit more dangerous?

Has Gord’s world just got a bit more dangerous?

Will MPs be less intimidated by a McBride-less No.10? One thing that’s stood out during this sorry Easter weekend for Labour has been the number of party MPs who’ve been prepared to put their heads above the parapet and condemn the McBridge-Draper smear strategy. We saw it on PB with the forthright comments on one of the threads by Nick Palmer MP and there was a tough condemnation on the Tom Harris blog. Given that there’ve been so many within…

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Is it now all down-hill for Labour in the media?

Is it now all down-hill for Labour in the media?

Guardian.co.uk Ex-Brown loyalist Jackie Ashley puts the knife in The daily press get their first chance this morning to mull over the McBride-Draper smear campaign and for me there is one column that stands out – not the least because it comes from someone who was once one of Brown’s most vociferous media cheer-leaders, Jackie Ashley. In her Monday Guardian column she describes the tactics that over the years that have characterised the Brown style. She writes of “the ideologically…

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Guidogate: how much impact will it have?

Guidogate: how much impact will it have?

Sky News In the middle of a political storm, it’s not always easy to keep a grasp of perspective – and there’s no doubt that over the last two days, there’s been a veritable political storm. The question is to what extent this is a Westminster Village story and to what extent does it go beyond that? As yet, the direct damage is limited: one advisor to Gordon Brown has resigned and serious questions hang over the future of a blogger…

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Will the “2010 polling disaster” be blamed on the elderly?

Will the “2010 polling disaster” be blamed on the elderly?

The other day I was asked whether I thought that modern polling still had any weaknesses and what would we be saying about their final predictions in comparison with the outcome on the Friday after the next general election. Are there any segments of the electorate who have a markedly different political profile from the norm who might be being over or under-represented in current polling approaches? The obvious group is the over 55s for we know that older voters…

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How Populus could have been much worse for Labour

How Populus could have been much worse for Labour

Populus Last night’s big news was the Populus survey for the Times showing that the Tories had extended their lead to 13% – which was in sharp contrast to YouGov the day before that had the gap in hung parliament territory – just 7%. Well I’ve just got round to examining the detailed data and as shown above the poll would have been much worse for Brown’s party but for the so-called “spiral of silence” adjustment. Under this the pollsters…

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