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Category: General Election

Going back to your constituencies. Alastair Meeks on not taking seat predictors too seriously in times of change

Going back to your constituencies. Alastair Meeks on not taking seat predictors too seriously in times of change

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Obviously, you should not treat opinion polls very seriously at all, especially when no general election is on hand. Respondents are being asked an artificial question (there is no general election tomorrow) with no real-world consequences hanging on their answer.  You might be getting a general expression of enthusiasm for a particular credo, a message to the voter’s normal choice or simply a casual choice made without much thought, and that’s before you get into the methodological adjustments that the pollsters…

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A 2019 general election moves up in the betting as the pressure mounts on TMay

A 2019 general election moves up in the betting as the pressure mounts on TMay

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange One of the big political betting movements this afternoon has been on the timing of the next general election as can been from the chart. As far as I can see the reasoning is that TMay’s time at Number 10 is moving to a conclusion with much talk of a leadership contest before the summer break. The only problem is that a new PM and leader would face exactly the same challenges…

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Nigel Farage reportedly looking to do Corbyn’s dirty work and help Labour gain Boris Johnson’s seat

Nigel Farage reportedly looking to do Corbyn’s dirty work and help Labour gain Boris Johnson’s seat

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This week’s Spectator reports that Rumours are circulating that Farage’s aim is to destroy the leader he fears most: Boris Johnson. This is more doable than it might sound. The former foreign secretary holds a 5,000 majority in Uxbridge —respectable, but not a lifetime guarantee, given the volatility of contemporary politics and London’s drift away from the Tories. Word is that Farage is considering standing against Boris in the next general election. He’d lose. But he might take Johnson down…

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Farage against the machine. Why the Brexit party’s chances are not as good as billed

Farage against the machine. Why the Brexit party’s chances are not as good as billed

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Nigel Farage’s second coming has been greeted with fanfares in the media, which love someone who courts publicity and is prepared to do whatever it takes to get it. His gaping maw can be viewed wherever you look, and he has so far been given an unimpeded run for his message that Brexit has been betrayed. His credentials as a strategic genius who delivered Brexit are taken as read. His brilliance as a politician is assumed. The imminent collapse of…

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On this day exactly two years ago it was Peak Theresa May (and Nick Timothy)

On this day exactly two years ago it was Peak Theresa May (and Nick Timothy)

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On this day two years ago ComRes was just finalising its poll for the S Mirror and the Independent. These were the published figuresCON 50%LAB 25%LD 11%UKIP 7%SNP 4%GRN 3% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 19, 2019 Two years ago today pic.twitter.com/0hBCC5jVNH — Sunder Katwala (@sundersays) April 18, 2019 On the betting markets it was a 92% chance that the Tories would win a majority. It got even tighter than that – on the weekend after Tory performance in that…

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Plunging opinion polls are not the Conservatives’ biggest problem

Plunging opinion polls are not the Conservatives’ biggest problem

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Memo to Conservative Party: Since March 29th you've averaged just 32.6%This is Michael Howard 2005 territoryYou've lost 9 pts in a yearYou're losing Leavers; support down 12 points in 5 monthsUKIP+Brexit Party have doubled in 3 months to 11% These numbers = PM Jeremy Corbyn — Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) April 15, 2019 Alice was introduced to the concept of an unbirthday party at the Mad Hatter’s Tea Party. By close analogy, let me introduce you to the concept of an…

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LAB might have leads of upto 9% in the polls but punters still make it neck and neck for the next general election

LAB might have leads of upto 9% in the polls but punters still make it neck and neck for the next general election

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On Betfair both CON & LAB are 47% chances to win most seats This does not happen very often but we are in a phase where the betting markets are out of line with the polls when it comes to the next general election. As the heading suggests CON & LAB running neck and neck when it comes to most seats. The polling, as we know, has been dire for the blue team in the last week or so and…

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On the 2nd anniversary of TMay calling GE2017 fewer are predicting an early election now

On the 2nd anniversary of TMay calling GE2017 fewer are predicting an early election now

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange The betting chances of GE2019 drop 20% in just 14 days It was exactly two years ago that we were told that the PM would be making a statement in Downing Street. All sort of rumours were triggered and it was only when the lectern was moved into the street that people started guessing that she was about to go to the country. The giveaway was that the PM’s crest was not…

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