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Category: General Election

Is Burnley the key to the expenses betting stategy?

Is Burnley the key to the expenses betting stategy?

After the revelations could the LDs unseat Kitty Ussher? Burnley in north-east Lancashire is where my family comes from and, indeed, my grandfather was Labour mayor of the neighbouring town of Nelson in the mid-1930s. The very idea that it could be anything other than rock-solid Labour seems extraordinary. Yet I now think there’s a chance that the Lib Dems could take it – and if Burnley went this way what will it say about other places? There are three…

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Expenses: How’s it going to go down in the marginals?

Expenses: How’s it going to go down in the marginals?

Will the “good guys” find it easier to hold on? With the Daily Telegraph dominated by pages of new revelations about expenses the thought strikes me that we ought to start watching out for the impact on marginal seats – particularly those where there are betting markets. For those MPs who’ve attracted the worst coverage are going to find it that bit harder to hang on when the general election comes. Their opponents, assuming they are smart, are going to…

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So what are the betting implications of all of this?

So what are the betting implications of all of this?

Daily Telegraph Is it good news for Alan Johnson backers? What an amazing period for political news this is? Last night I went to bed just as the Telegraph’s expenses expose was breaking and I’m only now catching up – so apologies for not getting a specific thread up earlier. What’s really startling is that the paper is promising more, much more, to come and this will include other parties parties and backbenchers. Will what’s revealed this morning be countered…

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Could it soon be pay-day for Jacqui Smith punters?

Could it soon be pay-day for Jacqui Smith punters?

Mail Online Surely she can’t survive at the Home Office? One of the forms of political betting which William Hill seemed to have made their own is on whether named politicians are going to be able to survive in their posts. Other firms and Betfair always seem reluctant to get into “will he/she survive” betting and you have to admire William Hill for always being ready, it seems, to take wagers on troubled politicians who are in the news. Betfair,…

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Is this the 96/97 measure to test Brown against?

Is this the 96/97 measure to test Brown against?

ICM Guardian polls Can Labour stay above 30% for the next year? Yesterday I had lunch in the “Westminster village” and it still comes as a surprise to hear apparently sophisticated political pundits not being fully aware that polling has changed dramatically since Tony Blair coming to power in 1997. Comparisons from that era with today are simply not valid – unless the pollster is ICM which is the only one still operating from then that has a consistent methodology….

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Johnson becomes the favourite to succeed Gord

Johnson becomes the favourite to succeed Gord

PoliticsHome100 But is he good value at 4/1? Two developments during the day on the Labour leadership – the PH100 panel of MPs, senior political journalists, key party strategists and think tank leaders – came out overwhelmingly to say that Alan Johnson would pose the biggest treat to the Tories. A total of 70% of those who took part backed the health secretary. At the same time on the betting markets Johnson moved into the favourite slot for the first…

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Is Alan the only one with a strategy to fight Dave?

Is Alan the only one with a strategy to fight Dave?

Could his approach curtail Labour’s losses? Over the long holiday weekend there’s been a lot of comment about the health secretary Alan Johnson and whether under his leadership the coming general election would not be as bad for Labour as some are suggesting. What the Johnson backers are not explaining is the “how” – the reason why, of all the current crop of leading ministers he is the only one with a well thought out and effective means of dealing…

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Roll up, roll up for the 1979 show

Roll up, roll up for the 1979 show

Will you stay with it for the WHOLE 15 hours? The BBC Parliament Channel has developed a splendid tradition of re-showing a full general election results programme from the past on Bank Holiday Mondays. You get it as though it was live as it happens and it lasts a very long time. For political anoraks these re-showings are quite an occasion and can sometimes be exciting even though, of course, we know the outcome. You also get insights which very…

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