CON 39 (-2) LAB 23(+1) LD 19 (nc) But are the BNP gaining in the Euros? There’s a new YouGov poll in the printed edition Daily Telegraph this morning which is not yet on their online pages which is why I missed it overnight. The figures will provide a welcome relief for Labour and might cause a touch of concern for the Tories who are below 40% for the first time since 2007 in a survey from the pollster. The…
Could Labour, be beaten by the UKIP caravan? In the 2004 Euro election campaign in the UK and so far during the 2009 campaign all the big shares for UKIP have come from the online pollster, YouGov or BPIX for which it carries out the fieldwork. Five years ago the firm was first to pick up the ground-swell of opinion in favour of the anti-EU party although at the end of the pollster overstated their national share. So this morning’s…
ComRes home-page CON 40(-5) LAB 21(-5) LD 18 (nc) Look how opinion has changed in the last 18 days? The fieldwork for the Indy on Sunday’s poll took place on Wednesday and Thursday and the first findings (non-voting related) from the poll were, I believe, released on the Daily Politics programme yesterday. The comparisons are with the last voting intention poll from the firm where the fieldwork finished on April 26th. Again, like with the non-registered BPIX, we see a…
Is Gord just too inflexible for the modern age? A few weeks ago (before Smeargate) I bumped into an old mate who is now part of the team at Brown Central. He said he knew I wasn’t a great fan of Brown but what did I think of his man’s chances? I responded by saying that I thought Brown would get slaughtered in a general election campaign simply because he wasn’t nimble enough. In these days of 24/7 media coverage…
PoliticsHome Sept 08 Look at what happens when a more refined approach is used Away from expenses and sleaze for a moment let’s look at a polling issue that’s been churning over in my head. It is possible that pollsters might be being mis-led when they ask standard voting intention questions? We know the sort of thing – “If there was a general election tomorrow which party would you vote for – the Conservative, Labour, the Liberal Democrats or some…
Has Number 10 been wrong-footed again? Judging by the tone of much of the coverage this morning the Cameron moves yesterday have been fairly well received and there’s little doubt that Brown’s comments last night that all MPs’ receipts over four years must be scrutinised by an independent group was his way of countering it. He denied it, of course, but he needed to do something ahead of today’s PMQs which kick off in the house at noon. He’s helped…
Who’ll get the job if/when Martin goes? With Adam Boulton on Sky News this afternoon reporting that there are suggestions that Michael Martin will hold on as Speaker until the general election and then stand down I thought a quick look at the betting might be a good idea. As far as I can see the only bookie with a market is William Hill which currently has Sir Alan Haselhurst (one of those named in the Daily Telegraph today) as…
Guardian online Will the Labour movement rise up against their leader? HenryG, a long-standing PB regular and contributor of guest slots about Labour’s internal workings, wrote on the previous thread that “…the big news today is the Polly Toynbee article on why Brown should go. Pretty devastating and gives clear instructions to the PLP.” The continuing expenses story, now with the focus on the Tories, has somewhat distracted from Polly’s totally damning column about Gordon and her call for a…