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Category: General Election

Two new polls this afternoon with very different shares for LAB and the Greens

Two new polls this afternoon with very different shares for LAB and the Greens

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If LAB had been doing better at recent elections then you might say that Survation has got this right. But Corbyn’s party had a miserable set of locals in May followed up by dreadful Euro elections three weeks later when they slipped down to just 13.6% and could not even maintain position as top party in London. They did, of course, hold Peterborough in June but with a share down 17% on GE2017. At the Euro election YouGov got the…

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New named leader hypotheticals from YouGov suggest that the Tories should have limited expectations for PM Boris

New named leader hypotheticals from YouGov suggest that the Tories should have limited expectations for PM Boris

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  Scenario 1: Imagine that a General Election is held later this year before Brexit has been delivered. Boris Johnson is the leader of the Conservatives, Jeremy Corbyn remains leader of the Labour Party, Jo Swinson is leader of the Liberal Democrats and Nigel Farage is leader of the Brexit Party. How do you think you would then vote? Figures with undecideds and refused excluded: CON 23% LD 23% BREX 21% LAB: 17% GRN: 8% But there’s the possibility of success after Brexit…

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Survey of LD members has Swinson ahead of Davey by 54% to 46%

Survey of LD members has Swinson ahead of Davey by 54% to 46%

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Who knows – the party could be choosing a future PM? So far the LD leadership contest has attracted little media coverage but is it just about feasible to contemplate that in the current political environment the next leader of the the strongly pro-EU LDs could be a future PM. James Kirkup sets out an interesting scenario on the Unherd political site. Meanwhile there’s what’s described as an “informal survey” of LD members that got the last contested election in…

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Speculation over 2019 election has punters now making it a 42% chance

Speculation over 2019 election has punters now making it a 42% chance

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Betfair Exchange historical prices from betdata.io With political uncertainty continuing to dominate British politics the chances of a general election this year have moved to a 42% chance on Betfair. This is not the highest it has ever been but, as the chart shows, it represents considerable change. I’m not convinced. I think the new CON leader, most likely Boris, will do anything that avoids an early exit that could deprive him of what he has been aiming for for…

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The YouGov discrepancy: just how badly is LAB doing?

The YouGov discrepancy: just how badly is LAB doing?

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Wikipedia A clear lead or struggling to be neck-and-neck? Three parties have dominated the coverage of opinion polling and major elections over the last three months. On one side, the Tories have clearly suffered a catastrophic loss, shedding more than half the support they had at the start of the year, losing more than 1300 councillors and then nearly all their MEPs in May. Against which, the Brexit Party has exploded out of nowhere to win the EP elections and…

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The idea that BoJo has some magical means of reaching LAB or pro-Brexit voters isn’t backed up by his record

The idea that BoJo has some magical means of reaching LAB or pro-Brexit voters isn’t backed up by his record

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Let's not forget that LAB secured a 6.5% swing against Boris at GE2017. That hardly suggests he can reach voters that others can't pic.twitter.com/DpsvZahKoN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 10, 2019 At Uxbridge Johnson performed worse than the London Tory average One of the apparent great selling points for Johnson to his party is that somehow he has a means of reaching voters that other Tories do not have. Therefore, his supporters argue, he is the man to take the…

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It was exactly two years ago today that Brexit, if it happens, inexorably changed

It was exactly two years ago today that Brexit, if it happens, inexorably changed

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Video: The moment the 2017 exit poll was announced When the history of Brexit is written I suspect the 8th of June 2017 will be seen as the most momentous day in Brexit history, even more so than June 23rd 2016. The moment Mrs May lost David Cameron’s majority might be the seen as the moment the Brexit mandate was superseded by those opposed to a No Deal Brexit, indeed Labour’s manifesto was explicit in that, nor did it commit…

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There’s no automaticity that the next Tory leader becomes Prime Minister

There’s no automaticity that the next Tory leader becomes Prime Minister

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Why Mrs May could end up remaining Prime Minister a lot longer than we think The Guardian reports Boris Johnson could avoid facing an immediate confidence vote in his premiership if he becomes Conservative leader, as ministers are considering whether to send MPs home early for their summer break before the new prime minister is announced. Mel Stride, the new leader of the House of Commons, aroused suspicions that the Conservatives are plotting to put off a confidence vote for their…

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