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Category: General Election

Is Corbyn at risk from the mother of all political decapitations?

Is Corbyn at risk from the mother of all political decapitations?

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Could his mighty Islington fortress be built a little bit on sand? We’ve heard a lot about how Boris Johnson is at risk of losing his Westminster seat come the next election. His 5,034 majority over Labour in Uxbridge & South Ruislip is not at all commanding – Labour need just a 5.4% swing to take the seat – and what with Johnson leading the charge towards a No Deal Brexit, with the economic and other disruption that would cause,…

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The BJohnson bounce and the LD recovery add to the pressure of the pressure on Corbyn

The BJohnson bounce and the LD recovery add to the pressure of the pressure on Corbyn

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Latest @IpsosMORI with changes on GE2017CON 34% (-9.5)LAB 24% (-17)LDs 20% (+12.4)BREX 9% (+9) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 1, 2019 Chart Evening Standard The Evening Standard in its reporting of the latest Ipsos-MORI poll leads on what is increasingly becoming a difficult narrative for the red team – their position in the post BJohnson voting polls and the very weak leader ratings their man has. The paper notes: The Ipsos MORI survey found 62 per cent of Britons now…

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PM Johnson’s first front pages after the day when he was most powerful

PM Johnson’s first front pages after the day when he was most powerful

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Team Boris will be very pleased with the way the papers are treating his arrival at number 10 and and his new cabinet. They reflect that he has made a massive impact. In one sense he is fortunate that the parliamentary summer holiday starts today day and and MPs won’t be back until early September. It was all designed like this to prevent an early vote of confidence. One of the things about taking over as prime minister is that…

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The first post leadership elections’ poll has Swinson’s party the main gainer and LAB below 20%

The first post leadership elections’ poll has Swinson’s party the main gainer and LAB below 20%

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New YouGov carried out after Johnson win has the LDs the big gainerCon 25% (-)Lab 19% (-2)Lib Dem 23% (+3)Brexit 17% (-2)Green 9% (+1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 24, 2019 After all the developments in the past couple of days it is good to have some new polling carried out entirely after the announcement of the results in the Lib Dem and Conservative leadership elections. The numbers are above and will be encouraging to Jo Swinson and very discouraging…

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Mandate, what mandate?

Mandate, what mandate?

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Boris’s election as Tory party leader and Prime Minister is the 8th occasion since WW2 when a new PM has been chosen in between general elections. On 5 of the previous 7 occasions, it was the Tories changing leader (Churchill to Eden, Eden to Macmillan, Macmillan to Douglas-Home, Thatcher to Major and Cameron to May). Only Macmillan and Major went on to win majorities at the subsequent election. On the 2 occasions when Labour made a similar change (Wilson to…

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2020 now edging toward the favourite slot in Next General Election year betting

2020 now edging toward the favourite slot in Next General Election year betting

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Betdata.io chart of Betfair Exchange With Boris due to become Prime Minister in just 6 days time there’ve been sharp changes on the Betfair year of the next general election market. As can be seen from the chart 2019 is slipping downwards and the money is now going towards 2020. A lot of this, I would suggest, is down to a growing realisation that the Fixed-Term Parliament Act makes it quite hard for the new leader to call an election…

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The catch. Why Boris Johnson probably won’t be going for an early general election

The catch. Why Boris Johnson probably won’t be going for an early general election

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Boris Johnson 'absolutely' rules out holding a general election before Britain has left the EU, saying: 'It would be the height of folly' — Jason Groves (@JasonGroves1) July 15, 2019 Bet against an early general election. Boris Johnson has ruled it out. As he is Britain’s presumed Prime Minister, we can take him at his word. And here’s why. Let’s look at the counter-argument first. You will not lack for Leavers arguing that Boris Johnson should force an election as…

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The idea that Johnson is an electoral asset is not supported by his record

The idea that Johnson is an electoral asset is not supported by his record

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Winning the Mayoralty when the Tories were 20%+ ahead was no big deal Much of the case for Johnson is based on the fact that he won the London Mayoralty for the Tories in 2008. The capital is seen as strong Labour territory therefore, the argument goes, he’s the man to lead the party when there’s the threat of Labour advancing. The only problem with that 2008 Mayoral result is that for the Tories generally it was the party’s best…

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