CON 45 LAB 25 LD 18 Introducing an exclusive new polling service from Ipsos-MORI In a post last week I argued that what we needed was some England-specific polling because this is where the big battles will take place at the general election. England has 533 of the 650 seats that will be at stake and proportionately more marginals than in the others parts of the UK. Also in England there is not the SNP/PC dimension which adds to the…
Will this still stand when the results are known? With YouGov yesterday showing a Labour share of 28% while ComRes for the Indy this morning puts it at 24% I thought it might be useful to remind ourselves of the “PB Golden Rule of Polling”. This is based on the the polling record at every single major election since the 1980s where the survey with Labour in the least favourable position has been the best indicator of voting intention. There…
UKPollingReport Remember the days when a hung parliament seemed a certainty? With all the talk about Brown being ousted or stepping down I’ve just been asked by a journalist how I thought Labour would do in the polls if there was a different leader. My starting point was the table above – the polls from the five months before Brown became leader and Prime Minister on June 27 2007. Just looking at the actual numbers came as something as a…
Guardian Can Jackie Ashley breathe fire into Labour? Mike Smithson
CON 40 (-2) LAB 27 (-1) LD 18 (+1) Tories down to 40% with YouGov The online pollster, YouGov, which has taken such a dominant position in UK polling, has another survey out this morning which might cause some concern at Cameron Central. For although the party is still in the 40s it is only just there and the lead over Labour is down to its lowest since June. We have not got details of the fieldwork period or a…
The UKIP man’s price moves in to 10/3 The big political betting news this weekend continues to be the general election fight in Buckingham between John Bercow and Nigel Farage. When ex-UKIP leader announced on Thursday morning that we would be standing against the speaker Ladbrokes opened the betting with a price of 6/1 that he’d do it. That didn’t last long and tightened to 4/1. Now Ladbrokes have had to bring in the price further because so much money…
Is this the way to get Lib Dems to support Labour? There are poll findings out this morning from the Electoral Reform Society which might just offer a glimmer of hope to Brown Central in its bid for Labour not to be annihilated in the coming general election. For the response to questions bolted onto last week’s Sun YouGov poll seem to suggest that a promise of a referendum on voting reform might influence some voters – particularly those planning…
Telegraph Can we expect more contradictions to come out? The war of words over the release of the Lockerbie bomber takes moves forward another step this morning with an interview in the Daily Telegraph which appears to contradict what the Prime Minister was saying earlier in the week. Then Brown was adamant that “There was no conspiracy, no cover-up, no double dealing, no deal on oil, no attempt to instruct Scottish ministers, no private assurances.” That’s all very hard to…