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Category: General Election

The whole Corbyn GNU story is based on a false premise – that MP numbers are there for a no confidence vote to be passed

The whole Corbyn GNU story is based on a false premise – that MP numbers are there for a no confidence vote to be passed

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The US President who took over after Kennedy was assassinated, Lyndon Baines Johnson, was famed for his sayings that wonderfully summed up political situations one of which was that the first rule of politics was that its “practitioners need to be able to count”. If only MPs and the media circus had thought about that last night when Corbyn made his ludicrous pitch to try to embarrass new LD leader Jo Swinson. For the main requirement for the circumstances envisaged…

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Survation has CON lead at 4 with just 19% wanting a no deal Brexit

Survation has CON lead at 4 with just 19% wanting a no deal Brexit

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NEW: Preferred Brexit outcome, updated: Remain in the EU 43% (+2)Leave the EU with a deal 29% (+2)Leave the EU without a deal19% (-6)Don’t know 9% (+2) changes w/ May 2019https://t.co/D6kusLfatx pic.twitter.com/leLDrFPK4I — Survation. (@Survation) August 14, 2019 Not the platform surely for a no deal-based General Election? With the October 31st deadline getting nearer and nearer all polls are being looked at closely to evaluate the gamble that Johnson would be taking if there was an Autumn UK general…

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Johnson appears to be doing what Gordon Brown did in the summer of 2007 giving you all the signs of going for an early election

Johnson appears to be doing what Gordon Brown did in the summer of 2007 giving you all the signs of going for an early election

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On Betfair it’s now a 72% chance that there will be a general election this year. pic.twitter.com/kJPhshLAzu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 12, 2019 Why I’m betting that there’s greater than a 28% chance of no 2019 election This period reminds me very much of summer 2007 when Gordon Brown took over from Tony Blair in the June of that year. There was a mass of activity, and a new initiative just about every day. All the speculation was that…

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The political backcloth to current events is that the majority of those who have a view think Brexit is wrong

The political backcloth to current events is that the majority of those who have a view think Brexit is wrong

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Cummings/Johnson don’t have public opinion on their side There was a time when the Brexit tracker in every new Times/YouGov poll would get reported and discussed with people trying to read something into the changes week on week. That’s now long gone. Public opinion as measured by this tracker has remained pretty constant for “wrong” with over the past year the lead being mostly in a range of 6-11 points. Clearly those answering that Brexit was wrong have a very…

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Do or Die? The trap the PM has set himself

Do or Die? The trap the PM has set himself

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In all the reactions to the Times front page about the possibility of Johnson staying on as PM even if Parliament passes a VoNC in him and prefers someone else who can command the House, two absences were notable: (1) no immediate denial by No 10; and (2) no outrage by the official Opposition at the prospect of what would seem to be an appalling breach of normally understood conventions, moreover ones which would normally benefit the opposition. After all,…

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Ruth Davidson’s hard won Scots Tory gains at GE2017 look set to evaporate at an early general election

Ruth Davidson’s hard won Scots Tory gains at GE2017 look set to evaporate at an early general election

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Gloomy numbers for Boris as he considers going to the country One thing that is looking increasingly likely at the next election is that a lot more seats are going to change hands than usual. BJohnson’s party will be looking to make gains in Leave areas to offset likely losses to the resurgent LDs and in Scotland the SNP. This has been reinforced from more data from Lord Ashcroft’s Scottish poll featured in the chart above. There was no conventional…

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Is there life after Brexit?

Is there life after Brexit?

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I don’t, unlike Dominic Cummings, think that No Deal is unstoppable. Parliament can stop it if it wants to. But let’s suppose that Mr Johnson succeeds in taking us out of the EU on October 31. Let’s further assume that he calls an election soon afterwards.  His pitch is obvious. “I said I’d get you out and I have. Now we need to charge whole-heartedly into the green fields awaiting us. I want to show you how great life will…

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Lord Ashcroft poll has Swinson beating Johnson, Corbyn and Farage in Scotland

Lord Ashcroft poll has Swinson beating Johnson, Corbyn and Farage in Scotland

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While all the focus on today’s Ashcroft Scotland poll has been on growing support for independence the numbers that could have most impact on an early UK general election are in the chart above. How the national party leaders are rated according to the Ashcroft question asking respondents to give a rating from 0 to 100. One of the remarkable things about the GE2010 outcome was that Gordon Brown’s LAB did substantially better in Scotland than in the rest of…

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