CON 47 (+8) LAB 24 (-1) LD 21 (-3) How many more marginals does this put at risk? At the start of September we launched the first of the “Battle-Ground England” poll results which are being provided by MORI on an exclusive basis. The comparisons above are with the last MORI poll taken just after the Liberal Democrat conference. What the firm is doing is running a special calculation for PB allowing us to make more specific projections for where…
40% 23% 20% A third pollster reports a 17 point Labour deficit Tonight sees the launch of the exclusive new monthly poll by the leading Canadian firm, Angus Reid Strategies for Politicalbetting.com – and the timing could nor be more apt. The main party figures are above. The “others” are UKIP 5%: GRN 3%: BNP 3%: SNP 3%: PC 1%. Extraordinarily the findings, like the ones from Ipsos-MORI and ICM earlier tonight show exactly the same Labour deficit – seventeen…
CON 44 (-1) LAB 27 (+1) LD 18 (nc) A second pollster adds to Labour’s gloom The second of tonight’s three polls, ICM’s for the Guardian, is out and shows very little change on the last survey from the firm taken in the immediate aftermath of the Tory conference and David Cameron’s speech. A lot of people assumed that the last figures were down to the conference effect and that once we “got back to normal” then the scale of…
CON 43 (+7) LAB 26 (-2)(+2) LD 19 (-6) Is the conference effect working its way out of the system? The first of three polls that are expected out in the next 12 hours has been published by Ipsos-Mori and shows a sharp change on their last survey taken just after the Lib Dem conference. That last poll had Labour in third place. The big contrast though is with the recent YouGov and ComRes polls which both showed a narrowing…
What do we think of HenryG’s tip? The overnight thread has been dominated by a comment by the usually well-informed HenryG that could have an important bearing on the Labour leadership. He wrote simply: “..I’m hearing that Mandelson could be about to shift support away from Brown into David Miliband’s direction. Not sure how that is going to manifest, or when or if it’s just whispers that do the rounds.“ Make of this what you will. Henry has set it…
1929 Conservative poster – Wikimedia Commons Could this still have potency – 80 years on? While idly surfing the net over the weekend I came across this wonderful poster from the 1929 general election which seemed to resonate with the current political mood. For Labour seems most vulnerable when the Daily Mail, and it is usually the Daily Mail, finds some new law or regulation that could have consequences way beyond the wrong that it was trying to deal with….
Will the debate NO backers win their bets? A fair bit of political news in the Sundays but the one most affecting the betting markets is the report by Melissa Kite in the Sunday Telegraph about the inter-leader talks over the formats for the proposed general election TV debates. There’s been a fair bit of betting not only on whether these will take place but who will be the chair and even which of the leaders, according to post-debate polling,…
Guardian Could he move to Number 10 AND keep his peerage? For months now it has been blindingly obvious to me, at least, that the Labour party would fare better if the business secretary with a whole string of other titles, Lord Mandelson, became Brown’s successor. He’s light years ahead of the internal competition in terms of his sheer political abilities and communication skills that with him in charge then his party would do better whatever side of the general…