Browsed by
Category: General Election

The “Super Six Predictions” part 3

The “Super Six Predictions” part 3

Comments 0 Comment

This is the third and final part of the general election constituency bets by half a dozen regulars who call themselves, with appropriate modesty, The PB Super Six. Thanks to Peter the Punter and ScottP for getting this together. The one I like is Norwich South where the incumbent is Charles Clarke – the former home secretary and long-standing Gordon Brown critic. Look how we have four separate views of the outcome. This is the Norwich South 2005 notional result…

Read More Read More

Which way is MORI going to go next?

Which way is MORI going to go next?

Comments 0 Comment

UKPollingReport Can you predicts its next set of numbers? I don’t think that there’s been a poll in recent times that has had such an impact on the media narrative that the November Political Monitor from Ipsos-MORI. Even though it’s now four days since it was published and nearly a week and a half since the fieldwork close the general election outcome that it suggested is still being mulled over by “serious” commentators. So what do you think the pollster…

Read More Read More

What does YouGov Scotland say about a “hung parliament”?

What does YouGov Scotland say about a “hung parliament”?

Comments 0 Comment

House of Commons Research paper But how important was it going to be anyway The latest YouGov poll of Scottish opinion has added to the growing narrative about a hung parliament. For the shares it found north of the border had Labour back at 2005 general election levels suggesting that the party is not going to suffer the losses that many had been predicting. The shares from the survey were comparisons on the last Scottish YouGov poll – CON 18%(-2):…

Read More Read More

An inconvenient truth for messrs Liddle and Macintyre

An inconvenient truth for messrs Liddle and Macintyre

Comments 0 Comment

Never forget the “Golden Polling Rule? In the feeding frenzy that’s followed the Observer MORI poll we’ve seen so-called experts rushing in to pontificate because they thought they had a story. The election was not a foregone conclusion after all. But there’s an inconvenient truth that you hardly hear mentioned – what PB regulars will know as “The Golden Polling Rule”. This is that whenever polls have been tested against real election results it’s been the survey with Labour in…

Read More Read More

Spread punters unimpressed by hung parliament talk

Spread punters unimpressed by hung parliament talk

Comments 0 Comment

SportingIndex CON 352-357 LAB 208-213 LD 50-53 MORI moves the Labour spread by just one seat The immediate reaction of the spread betting firms to the sensational MORI poll suggesting a hung parliament was to suspend trading while they took stock of the situation. We’ll have to wait until later in the day for the latest extrabet spreads but SportingIndex did produce revised figures yesterday afternoon and put Labour up by just one seat. Before the poll came out Brown’s…

Read More Read More

Can Gord now kiss goodbye to a deal with Nick?

Can Gord now kiss goodbye to a deal with Nick?

Comments 0 Comment

Click here to watch today’s interview So it’s the vote winners that matter – not the seat winners? For several years I have been posing the question of whether, in the event of a hung parliament, the Lib Dems would side with the party that won most seats or the party that won most votes – something that has again been brought into focus by the Ipsos-MORI poll. For the party of “fair votes” this was always going to present…

Read More Read More

Two polls, same timing, different outcomes. Eh?

Two polls, same timing, different outcomes. Eh?

Comments 0 Comment

How can we explain both MORI and ICM? One thing you must not do, when you see a shock polling outcome such as the survey for by MORI for the Observer this morning, is immediately to conclude that it must be a rogue or an outlier. The fact is that we don’t know. You can only label a poll like that with the benefit of hindsight and it might be that when we see further surveys that the poll carried…

Read More Read More

Has Labour got a by-election poll boost from MORI? – UPDATED

Has Labour got a by-election poll boost from MORI? – UPDATED

Comments 0 Comment

CON 37% (-6) LAB 31% (+5) LD 17% (-2) OTHERS 15% The delayed survey has the Tory lead down to just 6pts There are reports about that a poll due out tonight is “very good for Labour“. We haven’t seen any numbers yet and this post will be updated when we get some. Which pollster it is I don’t know but the November Ipsos-MORI poll is long overdue. The field-work began a week last Friday in the immediate aftermath of…

Read More Read More