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Category: General Election

Just how much has the gap closed?

Just how much has the gap closed?

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UKPollingReport Has a “Hung Parliament” now dropped down the agenda? In preparation for my monthly polling slot for tonight’s “The Westminster Hour” on Radio 4 I’ve been having a good look at the numbers. Clearly in the immediate period after the conference season the Tories were doing better than they have been in the past three weeks. The overnight surveys from YouGov and ICM were the first since mid-November to be back in the 40s. By contrast the Labour shares…

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Does Luton matter more than the whole of Scotland?

Does Luton matter more than the whole of Scotland?

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Are SNP-Labour battles no more than a minor side-show? Anybody who reads the overnight PB threads might come to the conclusion that the only thing that matters in the coming general election is Scotland. For some reason there are periods in the twilight hours when the site becomes almost a Sassenach-free zone (see note below). Quite often I’m accused of not taking Scotland seriously enough or I’m taken to task for asserting (post Glenrothes and Glasgow North East) that Labour…

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Does it need an 8.5 pc swing to oust Byrne or a 12.6 one?

Does it need an 8.5 pc swing to oust Byrne or a 12.6 one?

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Which 2005 “notional” result do we believe? A couple of weeks ago it was noted here that there was a big difference in the two most used projections for what the 2005 result in Ed Balls’s new seat at Morley and Outwood would have been on the new boundaries. This afternoon, while researching for piece on Ladbrokes new market on how many cabinet members could lose their seats I’ve found an even more glaring disparity between the UKPollingReport projection and…

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Is this how UKIP can win Buckingham?

Is this how UKIP can win Buckingham?

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The UKIP General-Secretary responds to Robert Smithson Occasionally the conventional laws of party politics must be put on hold – Blaenau Gwent, Bethnal Green & Bow and Wyre Forest being recent examples. Unusual scenarios lead to unpredictable outcomes; unique circumstances require mundane notions such as swing to be cast aside. Voters no longer make decisions based upon tribal party loyalty; they examine the candidates and decide who is best for the job. On Thursday evening Robert Smithson offered reasons for…

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Are LDs viewing the battle differently in the marginals?

Are LDs viewing the battle differently in the marginals?

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YouGov Is this just a quirk or an election pointer? As PB regulars will know I keep a close eye each month on the forced choice question that is put in the Telegraph’s YouGov poll. It’s been done in the same format for years and the party split might be an indicator of potential tactical voting. For a long period, up to the past couple of years Lib Dem supporters were much more inclined to respond “Labour under Brown” rather…

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Are punters waiting for an ICM poll?

Are punters waiting for an ICM poll?

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Why has there been so little movement on the spreads? It’s been an extraordinary couple of weeks with two polls suggesting that we are in hung parliament territory and, perhaps, a change in the media narrative. What seemed a certain Tory majority in mid-November is looking just a touch different. Above is the PB Index which is calculated by taking the average of mid-points on the main seats markets and then extrapolating that into a General Election outcome. The extraordinary…

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Should Mr. Brown look back over the C&N numbers?

Should Mr. Brown look back over the C&N numbers?

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By-elections.co.uk CON 20,539 votes (14,162) LAB 12,679 votes (21,240) LD 6,040 votes (8,083) The contest, held on 22 May 2008, was the first seat gained by the Tories in a by election since June 1982. The turnout was just 1.8% down on what it had been at the general election. Mike Smithson

Will attacking Etonians win or lose votes?

Will attacking Etonians win or lose votes?

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Could Brown’s toff-bashing quip turn-off middle England? John Rentoul makes a good point about one aspect of Brown’s PMQ’s performance on his Independent blog:- “…..there was one line that was too good to use. Brown invoked the name of Zac Goldsmith, the dormantly non-dom Conservative candidate, and said that David Cameron’s inheritance tax cut seemed like something “dreamt up on the playing fields of Eton”. .Having a go at Cameron’s school, chosen for him by his parents: Not Going to…

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