Could my December 2008 speculation come about? Back in December 2008 I put forward what I described as a “plan for Clegg” in the event that the Tories ended up with many more votes at the general election but behind Labour on seats. Such an outcome is highly possible if the gap between the parties gets down to five or six percent. On the one hand Clegg would find it hard with his own MPs and activists to deal with…
Telegraph Will it be PMMP after the election? Several papers, the Telegraph amongst them, carry reports of Mandy’s magazine interview in which he hints of his desire to return to the Commons as an MP. PaddyPower and Ladbrokes both make him fifth favourite to succeed Brown at 9/1 and 8/1 respectively. Yet for that to happen he needs to ditch his life peerage and that requires a current law change move to get through parliament quickly enough so he can…
Is the 14/1 that it’ll be June a value bet? So far most people seem to have dismissed the prospect of Brown hanging on until a June election (the last possible date) – mainly on the grounds that he would not want the big one to take place after Labour’s expected pasting in the May 6th locals. But how valid a reason is this? And doesn’t everything we know about him suggest that he’s going to find this such an…
guardian.co.uk Could Labour’s paymasters wield the knife? This is the conclusion of Polly Toynbee’s first Guardian column of 2010. “…Until now the unions have been Brown’s praetorians, whipped in by Charlie Whelan. But it’s time union leaders asked themselves if it’s in their members’ interests to see Labour crash out under Brown. The cabinet is frozen by individual self-interest – shame on all of them. They want Brown gone, but none dares wield the knife without the others. Future contenders…
CON 40% (40) LAB 30% (28) LD 17% (18) OTHERS 13% (14) And the Lib Dems slip a point The final poll of 2009, the December YouGov survey for the Telegraph, is in the paper the morning and shows margin of error changes for Labour and the Lib Dems. The Tories stay doggedly on 40%. Labour will be pleased though to have closed the gap a bit. It’s the LAB-LD interaction that seems to be key with the firm. When…
Was this the moment that Labour was “doomed”? In an interesting column on electoral reform today the Indy writer who often seems to be more Blairite than Blair, John Rentoul, made the following observation:- “..I am bound by that old self-denying ordinance not to name names, but something happened on 27 June 2007. That something virtually ensured that the party was doomed at the forthcoming election…” Is Rentoul being unfair. Was Brown always doomed to defeat or are we, even…
New Statesman What do we make of Kellner’s assessments? There’s a good assessment of the scale of the challenge facing Labour in the latest News Statesman from the president of YouGov, Peter Kellner, in which he examines the elements behind the recent revival in the party’s hopes. Kellner’s themes will be familiar to PB regulars. “The Conservatives’ poll lead has been shrinking.” “Well, up to a point….One much-reported MORI poll, in November, put the lead at just 6 points, but…
whatgas.com How electorally sensitive is the price of petrol? The above chart shows the average pump price for standard unleaded petrol over the past three years and one thing is striking – the high point in price in July 2008 coincided with the Tories achieving their best poll shares since the 1980s. The price dropped sharply in the second half of last year and reached a low point in December at about the same time as most polls were pointing…