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Category: General Election

Could Labour be being understated in the polls?

Could Labour be being understated in the polls?

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Guardian Might the Labour bias corrections have gone too far? The Guardian’s polling expert, Julian Glover, raises an interesting question this morning – could all the measures that have been made in recent years to correct the systemic pro-Labour polling bias have gone too far? And if that’s the case then could this offer a glimmer of hope for Brown’s party as it sees the Tories staying in the 40s looking on course for victory? For unlike any previous election…

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Do these 1992 approval ratings hold the key?

Do these 1992 approval ratings hold the key?

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Should we be waiting for the MORI January numbers? So in the past week we have had two telephone polls, Populus and ComRes, showing sharpish moves to the Tories while the two online polls have either reported no change (Angus Reid) or Labour moving up a notch and the Tories moving down (YouGov). Given that one, last night’s YouGov had the gap close to, as they say, “hung parliament territory” what is going on and could the election, after all,…

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How much will the debates help push turnout?

How much will the debates help push turnout?

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Is it worth 3/1 that it’ll exceed 70%? PaddyPower have now joined Ladbrokes in opening up a turnout market. Both are making 65 – 69.9% the favourite though the Irish bookmaker is being more generous if you think it will top 70%. It has 3/1 against this option compared with the Ladbrokes 9/4. I’m quite taken with the notion that we’ll see a significant increase on the 60% of 2005. This coming election looks set to produce only the second…

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Is this how Iraq could play out during the campaign?

Is this how Iraq could play out during the campaign?

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Question Time BBC1 – Click to watch Was Hain’s discomfiture a taste of what’s to come? Anybody who followed the previous thread will have got a taste of the passions and anger that were aroused by the discussion on Labour and Iraq on last night’s BBC Question Time programme. It takes up the first twenty minutes and is well worth watching. Already it has prompted that arch-Blair defender, the Indy’s John Rentoul, to blog with his misgiving about how the…

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Could the pledge card work again for Labour?

Could the pledge card work again for Labour?

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How will 1997 tactics go down in 2010? One of the simple but effective campaign tools that Labour has used in its last three elections has been the pledge card – and given the results in 1997, 2001, and 2005 who can blame them for looking at the idea again. When it first appeared it was symbolic of the new professional communication approach that Tony Blair’s New Labour seemed to embody. It comes over as positive politics and puts the…

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How many of these will be MPs after the election?

How many of these will be MPs after the election?

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What are the chances on the Ladbrokes Indy market? In an excellent review of the Welsh marginals on PB2 Meurig rather ducked out of a prediction for Blaenau Gwent – what was previously Labour strongest seat in Wales that was lost, of course, after the all-women short-list row in 2005 and then held onto by independent Dai Davies in the by election a year later. This is a pity because it could be key in trying to figure out the…

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Can Brown avoid being dragged into this?

Can Brown avoid being dragged into this?

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Was Campbell being unhelpful to Tony’s successor? On the face of it the Iraq inquiry is now a side-show to the big political drama in the UK – the fight by Labour to stop the Tories winning an outright majority in the coming general election. Labour’s key players at the time – Tony Blair and Alistair Campbell – have now moved on though it’s said that the latter is playing a behind the scenes role in supporting Mr. Brown. So…

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Is Angus Reid actually the best poll for Labour?

Is Angus Reid actually the best poll for Labour?

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Angus Reid Public Opinion It’s the only one showing them not shedding votes Our headline might sound counter-intuitive for the sixth survey in the PB/Angus Reid series, published last night, followed an established pattern and once again had 40-24-20 the smallest share for Labour of all the firms. Yet unlike all the other pollsters to have reported so far in 2010 Angus Reid is the only one that has the party currently led by Mr. Brown at the same level…

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