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Category: General Election

Endgame. The death of the referendum mandate draws near

Endgame. The death of the referendum mandate draws near

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https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1168479741491462144 Leavers have an apparently compelling pair of arguments. Certainly, those arguments completely satisfy them. First, they argue that everyone agreed that the referendum result would be implemented. Secondly, they argue that the wording on the ballot paper was clear, and that all that is required is for Britain to leave the EU. So, what’s the hold-up? It would be churlish to take issue with these arguments. So let me be that churl. For those two arguments are mutually contradictory….

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Heading for Labour minority government?

Heading for Labour minority government?

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At the time of writing, the Betfair odds for a Labour minority government after the expected election are 3.5 (7-2). After the Tory conference there should be a further Tory bounce, making the odds perhaps 3-1. This is, I think, too long. Here’s why. It’s generally expected and evidenced by numerous polls that the Conservatives will lose seats in Scotland to the SNP and to the Lib Dems in the south. They hope that these losses will be compensated for…

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Polling analysis: One in three CON GE2017 Remainers now say they’ll vote Lib Dem

Polling analysis: One in three CON GE2017 Remainers now say they’ll vote Lib Dem

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Team Cummings-Johnson working hard for Jo Swinson’s party Thanks to Paula Surridge of the University of Bristol for first picking up this trend that an increasing and now sizeable chunk of CON Remainers from 2017 have now switched to the LDs. This is based on Opinium polls which very helpfully provide cross tabs for what those sampled did at the last election broken down into their referendum choice. The trend is such that former CON voters could be rivalling LAB-LD…

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Where the Cummings “People vs Parliament” plan might stumble: LAB voters significantly less concerned about Brexit

Where the Cummings “People vs Parliament” plan might stumble: LAB voters significantly less concerned about Brexit

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How will this affect the campaign? There seems to be little doubt that the Tories will take hits from the SNP and the Lib Dems in the coming General Election. On top of that there could be messy situations in seats where Tory MPs who have been sacked stand again under a different flag potentially splitting the blue vote. If the Tories are to stay in the game and possibly win a majority then they need to take LAB seats…

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The Dogs that Haven’t Barked (Yet)

The Dogs that Haven’t Barked (Yet)

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Public schoolboys should never underestimate girly swots (Joanna Cherry QC, Lady Hale, Gina Miller). Nor should Tory Ministers, though judging by their reaction since the judgment, they seem to be doing everything possible to show they still don’t believe the law applies to them. Rees-Mogg, a man without any legal training and author of an execrable history book, has reportedly informed Cabinet that the decision is wrong and a constitutional coup. Gove has suggested that some judges in lower courts…

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Compared with the 2016 “Enemies of the People” Mail coverage today’s tabloids appear quite restrained

Compared with the 2016 “Enemies of the People” Mail coverage today’s tabloids appear quite restrained

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While watching the Supreme Court verdict yesterday morning I wondered quite how the strident pro-Brexit tabloids would cover it. We all remember the very powerful Daily Mail front page after the first Gina Miller case in the High Court and I was expecting something along the same lines. Well as can be seen above that hasn’t happened. The Mail links its attacks to Johnson’s comment and the Express reminds us yet against of the 17.4m.  The Sun’s front page hardly…

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The hurricane on Labour’s horizon

The hurricane on Labour’s horizon

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Labour can’t rely on election campaign miracles every time As Labour gathers for its annual attempt to spread a veneer of forced goodwill over ruthless power-plays, rather like a Game of Thrones family Christmas, they ought to be asking a rather different introspective question than ‘how does Momentum increase its control?’. They should be asking ‘how do we get out of this disastrous polling position?’. They almost certainly won’t. Because the truth is that Labour’s polling position – buttressed by…

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The real issue, surely, is that Johnson does not have the confidence of the Commons and should have quit when the Benn bill passed

The real issue, surely, is that Johnson does not have the confidence of the Commons and should have quit when the Benn bill passed

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Anne Twomey, who literally wrote the book on the prerogative, has written an important blog post that cuts through much of the legal machinations: When is prorogation ‘improper’?https://t.co/GR7rMJ6Gkt The answer: if the government is seeking to avoid a vote of no confidence — Jack Simson Caird (@jasimsoncaird) September 19, 2019 The blog post above, which is well worth reading in full, from a leading academic expert on the prerogative articulates something which has not really been taken up before. The…

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