After the Alastair Meeks post earlier today here is the latest betdata.io chart of movements on the “Month of the General Election” market. As can been seen December is still favourite but it has narrowed. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
Let us embark on a voyage of discovery and fantasy. Imagine, if you will, that you are Jeremy Corbyn. You are to retreat to your allotment for the day to clear your mind of the ephemeral nonsense of Westminster and to plan strategically. As you cycle past a couple of your favourite manhole covers, you start to turn your mind to the burning question: on what basis do you want to conduct the next election? We need to conduct this…
Heidi’s pro-Remain electoral deal could impact on 70+ seats A story that’s got hidden in all the Brexit news was this on SkyNews about Heidi Allen, the South Cambridgeshire ex-CON MP who this week joined the LDs. She told the news channel that Remain-backing parties, the LDs, GRN and PC, have come to an agreement whereby only one of them will compete in 70+ key seats in England and Wales. Also agreed is that these parties will not put up…
As has been remarked upon many times recently we are in a totally unprecedented situation when it comes to calling the next general election. Following Corbyn’s repeated reluctance to take the bait in September he, effectively, is the one who will decide when the country’s next general election will be held Johnson simply does not have the votes to reach the required two-thirds of all MPs as laid down by the Fixed-Term Parliament Act. If he wants to go to…
Ladbrokes make it CON 5/6: Grieve 5/6 The news at the weekend that the Liberal Democrats have decided to stand aside in the Beaconsfield constituency at the general election in order to give the incumbent MP, Dominic Grieve, a clear run has inevitably set off a betting market which looks likely to be a big one. Grieve, the former Attorney-General, has played a big part in opposing Johnson’s plans for Brexit for which he was booted out of the Conservative…
Chart by Betdata.io We are now in October and we know that the law lays down that there has to be 25 working days between an election being called and polling day so if one is to take place this year the options are running out. This month sees, of course, the Article 50 deadline and the court case in Scotland that seeks to ensure that a letter seeking an extension under the Benn act is actually sent if Johnson…
Surprisingly the two biggest circulation and arguably most influential politically papers, the Mail and the Sun, do not make in their lead. The former ignores it completely on its front page. Quite what we can read into that I don’t know. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
Chart betdata.io My money’s on 2020 or beyond For those who have followed the general election timing market this has become a familiar theme. The money moves to what appears to be the first possible month and then after a short period as betting favourite time appears to be running out and so we move onto the next option. Currently December 2019 is the favourite but apart from all the issues of holding an election in the run-up to Christmas,…