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Category: General Election

Will the new boundaries really make that much difference?

Will the new boundaries really make that much difference?

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Watch this 40 minute lecture from Michael Thrasher Professor Michael Thrasher, famed for being part of the Rallings & Thrasher duo, has produced an interesting video lecture on the bias that exists within the electoral system. It goes on for 40 minutes and is well worth watching by anybody interested in the UK electoral process. By way of introduction Michael Thrasher writes:- “An important feature of the UK voting system that causes a great deal of confusion is the operation…

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The Lib Dems the big gainer in new ComRes phone poll

The Lib Dems the big gainer in new ComRes phone poll

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And also the ComRes TRUTH LEAGUE A second phone poll in a week has good news for the Lib Dems. Last Tuesday ICM had Clegg’s party up 3 to 14%. Tonight ComRes has them up 4 to 14% – a level they last touched in February. This follows yesterday’s ICM Wisdom poll where respondents are asked to guess the general election shares for the main parties. This had 32/39/17. Also from ComRes there is an online poll for ITV news…

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LAB lead down a point to 7pc in ICM Wisdom index..

LAB lead down a point to 7pc in ICM Wisdom index..

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Plus some other points from the polls Labour lead by 7 in SunTel/ICM ‘Wisdom Index’ poll Lab 38 (-1), Con 31 (-) LD 17 (+1) Voters asked to predict gen elex result — Patrick Hennessy (@PatJHennessy) July 1, 2012 @Joga5 In its final unpublished 2010 general election poll ICM says its Wisdom Index was more accurate than any of the pollsters — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 1, 2012 @MSmithsonPB ICM/Guardian pre-adjusted [Table 2] (vs wisdom) – Lib 12 (-5), Lab…

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Henry G Manson: Could Dave just be thinking of an early election?

Henry G Manson: Could Dave just be thinking of an early election?

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Why the 5 year law is not the blockage it appears? This week’s Michael Gove O-level story and David Cameron’s somewhat controversial speech as Conservative leader on welfare stuck out for me as being a bit peculiar. They were spun as what we might see from a future majority Conservative government. But who will remember this in May 2015? There are two plausible political explanations. The most likely is the Prime Minister needed to butter up the troops especially before…

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On the 5th Anniversary of Blair’s exit from No. 10……

On the 5th Anniversary of Blair’s exit from No. 10……

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Would Labour still be in power if they’d stuck with Tony? Exactly five years ago today, June 27th 2007, was a pivotal point in British politics. It was the moment when the triple general election winner Tony Blair stood down and when Gordon Brown took over after Labour MPs had given him the job without a contest. Blair, of course, was one of only three leaders in Labour’s entire history to lead the party to overall majorities The clip featured…

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Is the potential for Labour simply much greater?

Is the potential for Labour simply much greater?

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YouGov And the blues have got bigger negatives? The chart above is from a new YouGov poll for Prospect when respondents were asked the following question:- “On a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 means you would never consider voting for them, and 10 means you would definitely consider voting for them, how likely are you to consider voting for the following parties at the next election?” It should be noted that each respondent was asked in turn about…

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Labour maintains a 11 point lead with Opinum

Labour maintains a 11 point lead with Opinum

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It’s LAB 42+1/CON 31+1/LD 9nc/UKIP 8-2 There’s a new voting intention poll out from the online firm, Opinium which has Labour maintaining its 12% lead. The firm doesn’t get much prominence but did come up with the closest numbers in last month’s London Mayoral election beating YouGov by 2 points. Ed Miliband still has the best net approval ratings from the firm. He’s -18%, Cameron’s -24% and Clegg -46%. Essentially the picture is the same from just about all the…

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The Tories now a 28.57 pc chance for a majority

The Tories now a 28.57 pc chance for a majority

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CON MAJORITY 28.57% LAB MAJORITY 33.55% NO MAJORITY 37.03% In January punters gave the blues a 42% chance The first PMQs after the extended break seems a good opportunity to introduce the punters’ general election forecast – something that we’ll come back to repeatedly over the next two and a half years. The percentages are based on the latest Betfair betting exchange prices. These are calculated by taking the last price traded on the exchange and presenting that as a…

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