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Category: General Election

Grant Shapps’ General Election headache number 1: Keeping the LD 2010 vote up in LAB-CON battle-grounds

Grant Shapps’ General Election headache number 1: Keeping the LD 2010 vote up in LAB-CON battle-grounds

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2015 could see the return of big-time tactical voting A year before the 2005 general election PB reported on analysis by Peter Kellner which sought to measure the impact of the so called “electoral bias against the Tories” in terms of the Conservative seats the party did not get. The boundaries and unequal-sized constituencies was one factor which Kellner reckoned cost the Tories 21 seats. He estimated that in 2001 there were 10 extra Labour seats in relation to overall…

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Dave’s secret supply of possible supporters? CON 2010 voters now saying “don’t know”

Dave’s secret supply of possible supporters? CON 2010 voters now saying “don’t know”

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The 2010 Tories who now say they don’t know. Dave’s secret supply of voters? There’s a lot of them – see chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 30, 2012 One of the segments of voters that hardly ever gets mentioned is made up of those who voted last time but now say that they don’t know. They haven’t switched to another party but, for the moment at least, they are not ready to say they’ll do what they did…

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The polling suggests that Europe is being much-overstated as a factor behind the UKIP surge

The polling suggests that Europe is being much-overstated as a factor behind the UKIP surge

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According to YouGov post-2010 general election polling just 41% of UKIP voters cited Europe as a factor. See chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2012 Thanks to Anthony Wells of YouGov for linking to this polling taken after the 2010 general election which sought, amongst other things, to work out why people had voted the way they did. The responses from UKIP voters when asked to name what were the three key issues for them are showing in…

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How saying goodbye to Gordon and being in opposition has boosted Labour “likeability” numbers

How saying goodbye to Gordon and being in opposition has boosted Labour “likeability” numbers

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Being in opposition is doing wonders for Labour’s “likeability” ratings. See Ipsos-MORI data 2007-2012 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 23, 2012 But what will it look like if they return to power? The chart above is based on Ipsos-MORI’s October “Leaders and Parties” polling. Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB

Henry G Manson asks: Can the Conservatives win in the North?

Henry G Manson asks: Can the Conservatives win in the North?

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What needs to change to win the key marginals? There was a fringe meeting at Conservative Party conference this autumn (see above) on how their party can win more votes and seats in the North. Without new boundaries it will be increasingly hard for the blue team to win a parliamentary majority without gaining more seats in the North of England, so it’s a live electoral issue. A recording of the debate has been posted online and it’s a good…

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How men and women are viewing politics differently from the huge 8,000 sample Michael Ashcroft poll

How men and women are viewing politics differently from the huge 8,000 sample Michael Ashcroft poll

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The gender voting intention split in the 8,103 sample in the Ashcroft phone poll. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 21, 2012 We often talk about gender splits in different polls but as we all know subsets can be subject to quite large margins of errors. The new Michael Ashcroft telephone poll with its massive 8,103 sample should give us a better picture which is why I have highlighted the numbers. To put that into context the monthly ICM poll…

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Can the king of “dog-whistle” politics deliver Dave an overall majority in 2015

Can the king of “dog-whistle” politics deliver Dave an overall majority in 2015

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Will new Tory campaign boss,Lynton Crosby,go back to his 2005 ads for Michael Howard like this one? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 18, 2012 Or are there dangers in Lynton’s Crosby’s approach? The big political news of the day has been the appointment by David Cameron of the Australian campaign guru, Lynton Crosby, to run the Tory 2015 general election campaign. Crosby is no stranger to these shores. Back in 2005 he was hired by Dave’s predecessor, Michael Howard,…

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LAB moves to its best position yet in the general election betting

LAB moves to its best position yet in the general election betting

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Betfair punters now make LAB a 40.7% chance of securinga general election majority.Tories drop to 22.2%. NOM on 38.2% twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 16, 2012 And the Tories slump to their worst position After a dramatic day of elections the Betfair market now rates the chances of a Labour majority government at just over 40%. The party had been joint favourite with “no overall majority” (NOM) prior to these latest results. The big message from Corby is that…

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