How the first YouGov poll of 2013 compares with its opening polls for the past five years
YouGov’s first poll of the year 2008-2013. See chart showing trend. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 3, 2013
ICM data shows that the 65+ group, the one most likely to vote, is the one most opposed to gay marriage
ICM figures showing how support for gay marriage drops sharply with age. 65+the fastest growing segment for UKIP. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 2, 2013 Does this have political impications? The above is based on data from last week’s ICM poll and shows what could be a political challenge – paricuarly for the Tories. For it’s the blue team which does better amongst the over 65s and it is this age group, particularly the men, who have most switched…
For the record last night on Twitter I entered into a general election wager with the Telegraph’s Blairite blogger Dan Hodges
@msmithsonpbYep. £50. — Dan Hodges (@DPJHodges) January 2, 2013 @msmithsonpbDeal. — Dan Hodges (@DPJHodges) January 2, 2013 @guidofawkesNo, you’ve had quite enough money off me… — Dan Hodges (@DPJHodges) January 2, 2013
LAB could win an overall majority with not much more than a third of the national vote
Given the way that the electoral system works in LAB’s favour then any maj price longer than evens looks like value twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 2, 2013 Why I’m now betting on a LAB majority AndyJS, who’s done a splendid job on the US election, has produced an online spread-sheet showing Labour’s target seats for the election. It’s presented well with a lot of good data and links and I’ve little doubt that we’ll be referring to it…
The size of the majority in 2015.
Paddy Power have a market up on the size of the majority in 2015. The current polling, and the boundary changes not happening, it seems difficult to envisage a Tory majority of any kind in the present circumstances. At the time of writing, the odds were, No Overall Majority 7/4 Conservative Majority 1 to 20 7/1 Conservative Majority 21 to 40 9/1 Conservative Majority 41 to 60 20/1 Conservative Majority Over 60 40/1 Labour Majority 1 to 20 15/2 Labour Majority…
The chart showing the polling story of 2012: The CON post-budget decline and the rise of UKIP
The polling story of 2012: The CON post-budget decline and the rise of UKIP www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=55077 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 26, 2012 Remember pre-budget when Farage’s party was on 1%? While putting the above chart together one set of numbers stood out – the March 2012 ICM poll for the Guardian published on the day before George Osborne’s budget in March. The Tories had a lead of 3% over LAB while UKIP were at their lowest point for the…
Finally ICM – what surely is the last telephone poll of 2012
ICM pie chart showing December 2012 poll for Guardian with changes on January 2012. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 25, 2012 Back in March 2012, the day before George Osborne’s budget, ICM was showing a 3% CON lead. Now, for third month in a row, LAB is 8% ahead. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 25, 2012 The big political event of the month – Osborne’s so called “trap” on capped benefits seems to have had no impact on voting…
Remember how working family tax credits became so potent in 2010?
Revisiting the last election – the final week With all the argument over working family tax credits I thought it useful to dig up this final week Labour election broadcast from 2010. They also figured heavily in other parts of Labour’s campaigning over those final few days. Whether this specifically was effective is hard to say. What we do know is that Labour’s final vote share was higher than the polls were showing and the party did better than expected…