Betting on who’ll be Lib Dem leader at general election
PaddyPower odds on who’ll be LD leader at election. If Clegg not there maybe Farron at 7/1?bit.ly/I8PkIO twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 15, 2013
A reminder – the main cause of pro-LAB bias in the electoral system is not the boundaries but lower turnout levels in LAB-held seats
The new boundaries wouldn’t have solved main driver of pro-LAB bias in system – lower turnout in LAB seats. See chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 15, 2013 I’ve published this chart before which is based on data prepared by Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University and others after the 2010 general election and seeks to show one of the big drivers of “electoral bias”. The first set of data shows the average electorate in LAB and CON constituencies…
The boundary changes are nearly dead
The unelected “Lords” vote on how MPs are elected. The boundary changes are almost dead. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 14, 2013 See full BBC report here.
Ed Miliband shouldn’t have given the undertaking that Ed Balls will remain as shadow chancellor until the election
Ed Miliband’s biggest mistake today was saying that Ed Balls will stay until the election. This is latest ICM polling twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2013 Poll after poll says it – Balls is a liability For me the big news from Ed Miliband’s Marr interview today was his commitment to keep Ed Balls as shadow chancellor until the general election. Yes it’s hard when an interviewer puts you on the spot like he did – but Ed…
The Clegg masochism strategy: The first leadership ratings have him up a net 9pc in a week
Nick Clegg’s net YouGov ratings at best point since March 2012. Now minus 45%. In Sept they were -63%. LBC effect? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2013 Today’s net -45% the best in getting of for a year Piles of polling overnight including, as every Sunday morning, the YouGov leadership ratings. Cameron sees a net rise of 1 to minus 18%; Ed Miliband a net increase of 3 to minus 20% and Nick Clegg up 9 to minus…
As we await another bumper poll for #Ukip – Ladbrokes open a market on the party’s general election vote share
Ukip gen election vote share of less than 5% the 5/4 fav on Ladbrokes new UKIP vote share market bit.ly/c5gpH6 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 12, 2013 Will the grumpy old white men stick with Farage? Tonight we’ll see what looks like another great poll for Nigel Farage’s party from Opinium for the Observer. In preparation the pollster issued a press release trying to explain the methodological reason why it thought its UKIP numbers were amongst the highest. In…
General Elections from 1950-2010
Sixty years of general elections. Chart showing the big trends from 1950-2010. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2013 @samiraahmeduk The data came from British Electoral Facts by Rallings & Thrasher. The chart was prepared by Politicalbetting’s Tomas Forsey — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2013 The big trend chart from Corporeal
By May 2015 Cameron’s decision to campaign hard against AV might not look very smart
How UKIP is eating into the CON vote – pie chart of CON 2010 voters from today’s YouGov data. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2013 Under FPTP LAB is the main winner The pie chart above is derived from today’s YouGov polling and shows the current voting intentions of those who supported Dave’s party in 2010. The 2010 data is based on polling carried out by YouGov immediatly after the election and not how polling respondents remember it…