Browsed by
Category: General Election

When are we going to get some decent general election markets?

When are we going to get some decent general election markets?

Comments 0 Comment

Latest odds from Ladbrokes on number of LD seats.bit.ly/c5gpH6. See here twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 22, 2013 Why are the bookies being so tardy? Within just six days of the 2005 general election seat markets were opened on the following race. Interestingly looking back at my post the opening spreads were: LAB 325-335: CON 226-232: LD 54-60. Those who were brave enough to bet on the Tories in May 2005 did very well indeed. Interestingly the mid-point for…

Read More Read More

New academic study says that in 2010 LD incumbents cost Dave the chance to govern alone

New academic study says that in 2010 LD incumbents cost Dave the chance to govern alone

Comments 0 Comment

How much will it be different in 2015? New academic work that has just been published shows that LD MPs have in the past enjoyed extremely large incumbency advantages on a level with those of US congressmen, This is said to have been worth between 5% and 15%. LAB and CON MPs, by contrast, had incumbency advantages of about 2% and 1% respectively. The report, published in Electoral Studies by Timothy Hallam Smith of the University of Nottingham, estimates that…

Read More Read More

The latest ICM phone poll finds that the LAB lead is down 3 to just 5 percent

The latest ICM phone poll finds that the LAB lead is down 3 to just 5 percent

Comments 0 Comment

LAB lead down to 5% in the January ICM poll.m.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 21, 2013 CON 1% ahead with men but 16% behind with women With a record for accuracy and polling innovation going back over two decades the telephone survey by ICM for the Guardian is the polling event of the month. The firm is widely regarded as “the gold standard”. The latest numbers just published see the LDs edging back up 2 to 15%, the…

Read More Read More

MacShane, Dave’s big EU speech and the #Plebgate report

MacShane, Dave’s big EU speech and the #Plebgate report

Comments 0 Comment

Three dramatic headlines on the BBC’s main politics news page. bbc.co.uk/news/politics/ twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 21, 2013 The big political headlines this lunchtime Number 10 has been wise to waste no time in re-fixing Dave’s big EU speech which should have been given in the Netherlands on Friday. Unless the briefings have been very much off target we’ve got a fair idea already what’s in it – a promise for a post 2015 referendum after the completion of…

Read More Read More

Sunday Times reporting possible threat to Dave’s leadership

Sunday Times reporting possible threat to Dave’s leadership

Comments 0 Comment

Sun Times Dave speculation:Ladbrokes offer 3/1that Dave won’t be CON leader at gen election. bit.ly/c5gpH6 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2013 Sunday Times says “increasing number of CON MPs are privately discussing the possibility” of attempting to unseat Dave before the 2015 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 19, 2013 S Times quotinga” well-placed source” said that up to 17 MPs had now written letters of “no confidence” in Dave — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 19, 2013 The Sunday…

Read More Read More

Now hints of a story you never thought you would see: Nick Clegg – the Comeback Kid

Now hints of a story you never thought you would see: Nick Clegg – the Comeback Kid

Comments 0 Comment

After the worst figures for 23 yrs from MORI yesterday Clegg & LDs see their best numbers with YouGov since Nov 2010 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 17, 2013 Update: Labour lead at 9 – Latest YouGov/The Sun results 16th Jan – CON 33%, LAB 42%, LD 12%, UKIP 8%; APP -28 y-g.co/10c9rhJ — YouGov (@YouGov) January 17, 2013 Cameron extends lead over EdM to 10% in YouGov’s best PM rating. He’s 33, EdM 23(-2), Clegg 7 (+2) —…

Read More Read More