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The real problem for the Tories over same sex marriage is that once again they appear divided

The real problem for the Tories over same sex marriage is that once again they appear divided

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This must be the most worrying poll finding for the Tories at the moment. They appear divided. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2013 It has been said many times before that the one thing that is a big turn-off for voters is for a party to appear divided. This arguably has a much greater impact on electoral outcomes than a particular stance on a specific issue. So the big danger for the Tories in the same sex marriage…

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The YouGov LAB lead over CON reaches a record high

The YouGov LAB lead over CON reaches a record high

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Today’s LAB lead of 15% in YouGov daily poll is an all-time high for the firm. CON 30%: LAB 45% twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2013 @a_c_mcgregor But which was the outlier?The sequence of LAB leads has been 6, 6, 9, 9, 12, 7, 15 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2013 The full YouGov figures for today: CON 30%, LAB 45%, LD 11%, UKIP 9% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2013

If Huhne gets 12 months or more then we could see the first CON-LD by-election spat since the coalition was formed

If Huhne gets 12 months or more then we could see the first CON-LD by-election spat since the coalition was formed

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Huhne pleads guilty. If he’s jailed for a year he’ll lose his Eastleigh seat where LDs had maj of 3,864 at #GE2010 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2013 The full Eastleigh result from May 2010 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2013 Ladbrokes make the LDs evens FAV to hold Eastleigh if there is a by-election.6/4 CONS, 6/1 UKIP, 10/1 LAB. bit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2013 But what about a resurgent Labour?

Study: Less than one twentieth of Labour’s current polling share is from #GE2010 CON voters

Study: Less than one twentieth of Labour’s current polling share is from #GE2010 CON voters

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Worrying story for LAB that party not picking up enough #GE2010 CON converts.m.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/… . twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 3, 2013 The red team is too reliant on non #GE2010 voters and LDs There’s some worrying news for Labour this morning from a Fabian society study of the make-up of Labour’s current polling standing. It finds that the total of CON>LAB switchers since May 2010 has been just 400,000 voters. The study found that about 1.4m of thoose currently…

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LAB YouGov daily poll lead moves back to pre-Cameron EU speech levels. Any bounce seems well and truly over

LAB YouGov daily poll lead moves back to pre-Cameron EU speech levels. Any bounce seems well and truly over

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Today’s LAB YouGov share up to 44% – 12% ahead of CON.Chart shows that the DC EU speech bounce is over twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 1, 2013 55% tell Ashcroft that they want a LAB maj or LAB-LD coalition Lord Ashcroft phone poll finds that 55% want a LAB majority or LAB-LD coalition. 45% want CON maj or CON-LD coalition twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 1, 2013 Lord Ashcroft poll finds that 30% want to see the…

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Clegg says he intends to stay leader and Ladbrokes make him odds on FAV to hold seat

Clegg says he intends to stay leader and Ladbrokes make him odds on FAV to hold seat

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Nick Clegg tells LBC that he intends to be LD leader after #GE2015. Ladbrokes make him 1/3 FAV to hold Shef Hallam twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2013 The Ladbrokes Sheffield Hallam betting.bit.ly/c5gpH6 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2013

LAB YouGov leads seems to be settling down at about 9 percent – a notch down on before the Cameron referendum pledge

LAB YouGov leads seems to be settling down at about 9 percent – a notch down on before the Cameron referendum pledge

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LAB leads remains at 9% with YouGov. The trend is starting to suggest that DC referendum promise not a game-changer. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2013 Ed Miliband closes gap in YouGov’s Best PM ratings.Cam was 10% ahead – now 8% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2013 Day to day movements in the polling are being watched very closely at the moment following the Cameron EU speech eight days ago. The latest, this morning, has CON 33:…

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