Browsed by
Category: General Election

My first Ukip GE2015 bet: 8/1 with Hills that they’ll win 2+ MPs

My first Ukip GE2015 bet: 8/1 with Hills that they’ll win 2+ MPs

Comments 0 Comment

What’s the current most popular #GE2015 Ukip bet is the 8/1 from William Hill that they’ll win 2+ MPs twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 25, 2013 Quite simply Ukip has a better than 11.1% chance of doing it Whenever punters make bets they are NOT making predictions. What they are doing is looking at the odds and deciding that the chance of the outcome happening is greater than the implied probability that the price suggests. Until now the view…

Read More Read More

Marf on the budget aftermath and GE2015 betting prospects

Marf on the budget aftermath and GE2015 betting prospects

Comments 0 Comment

Site notice. There is likely to be some down-time today with the site We are doing a major upgrade as well as experimenting with the comments system. How the betting markets see GE2015 Betfair punters make LAB overall majority 43.9% fav for #GE205 . Hung parliament: 35.5%. Table based on last trades. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 21, 2013 Where the money is going on #Eastleigh for #GE2015. Oddschecker chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 21, 2013

The biggest challenge for Cameron – winning back CON 2010 voters now saying don’t know

The biggest challenge for Cameron – winning back CON 2010 voters now saying don’t know

Comments 0 Comment

IfCON 2010 voters who are now “don’t know” return then #GE2015 could be lot closer. See pie chart fromICM data. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2013 Why GE2015 could be closer than it now looks One of the biggest challenges when analysing voting intention polls is the very high level of “will vote – don’t knows” that we see. These totals are generally higher in ICM polls because the form of questioning is much less judgemental than with…

Read More Read More

How Ukip could double or even triple their 2010 vote share at GE2015

How Ukip could double or even triple their 2010 vote share at GE2015

Comments 0 Comment

Latest prices from Ladbrokes on overall vote share for Ukip at #GE2015. For me the best bet is 6/4 5-10% twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2013 But they’ll do far better in the non-battlegrounds Back at the 2010 general election Ukip achieved the ranking of eleventh in terms of seats (it got none) but fourth in terms of the overall national vote share. Then the total was 3.1% with the BNP’s on fourth place at 1.9%. Given the…

Read More Read More

The Ashcroft marginals poll said LAB majority of 84 – punters think that Miliband’s party will be 11 seats short

The Ashcroft marginals poll said LAB majority of 84 – punters think that Miliband’s party will be 11 seats short

Comments 0 Comment

Ashcroft’s marginals poll had LAB maj of 84 & 17 LD MPs. Ladbrokes punters aren’t impressed. bit.ly/c5gpH6 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 12, 2013   The Ladbrokes GE 2015 line betting set market was launched in January and offers punters each-way bets at evens on whether the parties will be above or below the stated thresholds. At stake will be 650 seats so, theoretically at least, a party needs 326 to be sure of a majority. However, taking into…

Read More Read More

At last! News of the constituency poll I believe I took part in and which is contributing to the Tory gloom

At last! News of the constituency poll I believe I took part in and which is contributing to the Tory gloom

Comments 0 Comment

CON 1500 majority that’ll go LAB 7000: the private poll that’s adding to the blue panic.m.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 11, 2013 Was the funder Bedford’s MP, Richard Fuller – majority 1353? Last autumn, for the very first time in my life, I took part in telephone political poll. After having written about polling for years this was a unique experience and I’ve been waiting for the survey I took part in to appear. As I recall the…

Read More Read More

Lord Ashcroft marginals poll out

Lord Ashcroft marginals poll out

Comments 0 Comment

New Ashcroft marginals poll points to LAB majority of 84. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2013 Ashcroft marginals poll suggests that CON would lose to LAB 93 of its 107 most marginal seats — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2013   LDs would lose 17 to CON and 13 to LAB according to Ashcroft marginals poll — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2013   Lord Ashcroft has conducted and published a poll in  213 constituencies throughout Great Britain –…

Read More Read More

ConHome surveys suggests that most CON activists now believe that the next general election is lost

ConHome surveys suggests that most CON activists now believe that the next general election is lost

Comments 0 Comment

The Eastleigh third place has just added to the gloom The Times leads on the ConHome survey suggesting that most Tories think #GE2015 is already lost. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2013 The Times is reporting that a Conhome survey found that just 7% ofCON members believe that the party come win a majority at #GE2015 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 8, 2013 75% of those in a Conhome survey reported in Times believe that Labour,either in coalition…

Read More Read More