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Category: General Election

Dave would not have become PM if he’d held out for a minority Conservative government

Dave would not have become PM if he’d held out for a minority Conservative government

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May 7 2010: Cameron making his offer to the LDs On Friday I took part in a conference panel with Paul Staines and the respected city analyst, David Buik. He made a statement which we’ve heard before from Conservative supporters that Cameron’s big mistake was making his offer to the Lib Dems on the day after the last general election. Buik, and others including a number of Tory MPs and commentators, have argued that the minority Tory government would not…

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Now the best batch of polling news for the Tories for months

Now the best batch of polling news for the Tories for months

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These numbers should calm the Cameron doubters Today's YouGov for Sun had LAB lead down to just 6% CON 32 LAB 38 LD 10 UKIP 13 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 20, 2013 Today's YouGov sees Dave increase his "Best PM" lead over EdM from 7% to 15% Dave 35%+5 EdM 20%-3 Clegg 5%-1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 20, 2013 YouGov finds that more people now want a majority CON government to a majority LAB one pic.twitter.com/6m9EJgk2aJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 20, 2013 Main…

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Michael Gove’s flagship educational policies could turn out to be a GE2015 liability not an asset

Michael Gove’s flagship educational policies could turn out to be a GE2015 liability not an asset

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Latest YouGov "best on Schools & Education" ratings point to Gove's policies being a driver of LD > LAB switching pic.twitter.com/ZiTIbhgPKw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 18, 2013 2010 LD voters give LAB a 22% lead on the issue Whenever there is any polling involving the coalition’s education policies or Michael Gove personally the key swing group of voters next time, 2010 Lib Dems, appear to be taking a hostile view. Today we have YouGov’s regular ratings on the best…

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The LAB-CON marginals: How Lib Dem non-targeting could help Labour

The LAB-CON marginals: How Lib Dem non-targeting could help Labour

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Another headache for Grant Shapps There’s a wide awareness of the fact that the Lib Dems, who chalked up 24% of the GB vote in 2010, will be putting 100% of their efforts into no more than 75 seats – the 57 they are defending and a few more where they think they are in with a shout. All the focus has been on what this will do in the LD battlegrounds but it could also make a big difference…

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Dave rates equally with CON party in latest ComRes online favourability ratings

Dave rates equally with CON party in latest ComRes online favourability ratings

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Latest favourable/unfavourable ratings from ComRes online see Balls ahead of Osborne & LAB ahead CON. Dave/EdM = pic.twitter.com/h94WiXZOCw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 15, 2013 Well done to ComRes for sticking with favourable/unfavourable ratings which are widely used in US and which I regard as best format. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 15, 2013 On voting intentions CON slip sees LAB extend ComRes lead LAB extends leader in latest ComRes online poll for IoS/S Mirror Con 26% (-3) Lab 35% (0) UKIP…

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Going for a 5-year fixed term might have been mistake

Going for a 5-year fixed term might have been mistake

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Henry G Manson on the impact of waiting till May 2015 I’m not a big fan of fixed terms, but what stuck me at the start of the Coalition was how little debate there was about the length of fixed term that was being proposed. The majority of fixed term governments are run on a 4 year cycle, yet the Coalition were determined to lock in 5 years of government. This in itself will pose challenges for all parties. From…

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Remember when the Tories recovered from a poll share of 23pc to win a landslide 18 months later

Remember when the Tories recovered from a poll share of 23pc to win a landslide 18 months later

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A lot happened between Dec 1981 and June 1983 Whenever people raise the question of whether the Tories can win the next election I like to point to the above opinion poll by Gallup in December 1981. At the time the big story was the rise of the SDP and this poll took place shortly after Shirley Williams had had a spectacular victory in the Crosby by-election. The new party had the media narrative with it and quite a number…

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