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The real mug punters at the moment are those piling onto a CON majority at 3-1

The real mug punters at the moment are those piling onto a CON majority at 3-1

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Full Ladbrokes GE2015 betting LAB majority 5/4 (from 11/10) Hung parliament 13/8 CON maj 3/1 (from 7/2) UKIP maj 100/1 LD maj 200/1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 9, 2013 @richardmarcj Bookies are just responding to fact that there are more mug UKIP punters about than LD ones ready to bet on overall majorities — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 9, 2013 The mood of optimism that’s been coming out of the Tory camp in recent days about GE2015 has inevitably affected the betting markets. Ladbrokes…

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It’s now now neck and neck on Betfair between a LAB majority at GE2015 and a hung parliament

It’s now now neck and neck on Betfair between a LAB majority at GE2015 and a hung parliament

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Hung parliament now running neck and neck with LAB at Betfair GE2015 based on actual trades expressed as %ages pic.twitter.com/GV6MSm21R8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 8, 2013 The CON majority price edges up Above are the latest Betfair trades on the exchange’s GE2015 overall majority market. The percentages are calculated by taking data from the Betfair site and expressing them as a percentage simply because more people understand them that way. The reason that they don’t add up to 100%…

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At this stage, 22 months before GE2010, this is how the Sunday Times YouGov poll had it

At this stage, 22 months before GE2010, this is how the Sunday Times YouGov poll had it

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But will things be different with a coalition? The date, July 7th, means that we are exactly 22 months away from May 7th 2015 – the day laid down in the Fixed Parliament Act for the next general election. We’ve all heard of the swingback theory that governments recover as we get closer to elections. Indeed just click on the 2010 result tab on the graphic to see how much LAB eventually made up. What we don’t know is how…

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The trends for Labour’s lead and UKIP’s share in Sunday Times YouGov polls

The trends for Labour’s lead and UKIP’s share in Sunday Times YouGov polls

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Today’s key YouGov poll details The latest YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has LAB lead down to 6% CON 33% LAB 39% LD 11% UKIP 12% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 7, 2013 All 3 leaders take small hit in YouGov leader ratings Dave minus 20 from -17 EdM minus 34 from -31 Clegg minus 51 from -49 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 7, 2013 29% tell YouGov that EdM has been too close to the Unions 13% too distant 22% about right. 36% say don't know — Mike…

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Ladrokes offering evens that the SNP will increase the number Westminster MPs at GE2015

Ladrokes offering evens that the SNP will increase the number Westminster MPs at GE2015

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Ladbrokes have an interesting bet up on the number of SNP MPs at Westminster after the next general election. The prices are evens that it will be above 6.5 and evens that it will be below. The big election between now and 2015, of course, is the Scottish Indy referendum in September 2014. If YES wins then, I’d assume, there’d still be Scottish MPs in the UK parliament until a full transfer of power has taken place. If it’s NO…

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The Tory YouGov mini-surge seems to be over

The Tory YouGov mini-surge seems to be over

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The LAB lead setting down to pre-spending review levels Almost no change in today's YouGov Sun poll CON 32 LAB 40 LD 9 UKIP 13 For the 3rd consecutive day the LDs in single figures — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 4, 2013 Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB

The methods used by the big unions to get Ed Milliband elected in 2010 are why he has to stand up to UNITE now

The methods used by the big unions to get Ed Milliband elected in 2010 are why he has to stand up to UNITE now

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The row over the Falkirk selection could make or break him Mail packs, such as the one featured above from the GMB union to those of its members entitled to vote in Labour’s leadership election, played a pivotal role in EdM’s victory September 2010. They were developed for the GMB, UNISON and UNITE unions to get round a Labour party ban on candidates’ promotional materials being included in the voting packs for the election. Instead the ballot papers were nested…

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The second YouGov poll in a row has the LAB lead down to just 5pc

The second YouGov poll in a row has the LAB lead down to just 5pc

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Are figures like this the new normality? There’s a general rule about the Sun’s daily poll from YouGov – if the numbers are good for the Tories then they get Tweeted overnight. If not then we usually have to wait until the normal publication time of 6am. The latest figures came out before midnight and show the CON and LAB shares at exactly the same level as they were in Sunday’s poll from the firm for the Sun’s News International…

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