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Category: General Election

Marf on a windy day and LAB still struggling to win CON converts

Marf on a windy day and LAB still struggling to win CON converts

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New Populus Voting Intention figures: Lab 38 (-1); Cons 33 (-1); LD 12 (+1); UKIP 9 (-1); Oth 7 (-1) Tables here: http://t.co/yhVZrjsukR — Populus (@PopulusPolls) October 28, 2013 The chart shows the broad make-up of the current LAB vote according to today’s poll. Although there is the normal variation from pollster to pollster and poll to poll the big picture is the same – very few CON voters from last time have moved into the LAB camp. Looking back…

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Questions on satisfaction with your own MP should become a regular part of polling

Questions on satisfaction with your own MP should become a regular part of polling

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Our vote is not for a party or PM but for an individual MP A key aspect of UK elections that seems to get sidelined is the nature of what we are actually doing when we vote at general elections. We are not, except in the EU parliament elections, voting for a specific party and we are not voting for a Prime Minister. Our choice is for an individual to represent us at Westminster and to many voters that, as…

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The main impact of the energy cap issue will be to firm up the LAB vote rather than attract switchers

The main impact of the energy cap issue will be to firm up the LAB vote rather than attract switchers

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It is now 4 weeks since Miliband raised the energy price freeze and amazingly it's dominated the political narrative ever since — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2013 6-0 job to Miliband, ably assisted by Bercow #pmqs — James Chapman (Mail) (@jameschappers) October 23, 2013 As the Tweets above suggest Dave had a pretty hard time of it at PMQs while Ed’s confidence continues to grow. It is exactly four weeks since Ed made his conference speech and still Cameron…

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There’s a mismatch between GE2015 overall outcome betting and the odds that can be had in individual seats

There’s a mismatch between GE2015 overall outcome betting and the odds that can be had in individual seats

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Richard Nabavi says don’t bet on a Tory majority The best odds you can currently get on a Conservative majority at the next election are 4.0 (3/1 in old money), which in isolation is a good bet if and only if you think the probability of a 2015 Cameron majority is higher than 25%. Of course, a Tory majority is not something which can happen independently of other eventualities; it can happen only if the Conservatives can hold on to…

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With so much difference between the week’s polls the best bet is to rely on ICM

With so much difference between the week’s polls the best bet is to rely on ICM

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How Betfair punters are seeing GE2015 So many polls – so little clarity With so many different pictures being recorded in the polls in the past week my normal recourse is to revert back to what I regard as the gold standard – the monthly phone poll from ICM. The firm was the top British pollster at three of the past four general elections and got the AV referendum right down to one decimlal point. This came out on Monday…

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David Herdson argues that the rising cost of living might not be Miliband’s magic bullet

David Herdson argues that the rising cost of living might not be Miliband’s magic bullet

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Labour could be handing the government the economic debate by default Two news stories this week again highlighted the critical issue of the cost of living, which Ed Miliband made the centrepiece of his conference speech, and which Labour has been pushing ever since its leaders worked out that a genuine economic recovery was underway. The first was the round of energy price hikes, which may or may not be partially related to that very speech – there was plenty…

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Another poll has CON getting much closer to LAB

Another poll has CON getting much closer to LAB

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Chart showing trend in TNS-BMRB polls this year pic.twitter.com/tWzf0RHUTf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 15, 2013 Another poll has CON getting close to LAB Latest figures from TNS-BMRB CON 34% (+5) LAB 36% (-3), LD 9% (0) UKIP 13% (-1), — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 15, 2013 The firm carried out the survey of 1,207 people between the 10th and 14th October 2013. The interviews were conducted using the pollster’s unique online self-completion which combines face to face with online questioning. Generally the firm’s…

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