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For the 3rd consecutive YouGov poll LAB’s in the 40s, a sequence that was last bettered in April

For the 3rd consecutive YouGov poll LAB’s in the 40s, a sequence that was last bettered in April

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Update: Labour lead at 6 – Latest YouGov/The Sun results 5th November – Con 34%, Lab 40%, LD 8%, UKIP 11%; APP -26 http://t.co/yQ959vX9kf — YouGov (@YouGov) November 6, 2013 The last time that LAB had a run of more than three YouGov daily poll shares in the 40s was back in April before the local elections. So today’s third consecutive poll with the party in the 40s suggests that with this firm at least its position is stable. There…

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With almost exactly a year and a half to go LAB majority moves into the favourite slot

With almost exactly a year and a half to go LAB majority moves into the favourite slot

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GE2015 betting odds LAB maj 6/4 No majority 13/8 CON maj 3/1 pic.twitter.com/m5LBy318G0 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 5, 2013 My longest-priced bet is the 12/1 I got last year with Hills for their “other” option in the GE2015 outcome market. That covers a hung parliament but with no coalitions being formed. At 9/1, in a bet placed in May, I’ve got another CON-LD coalition or, if you like, the incumbent government being returned to power. I’ve got wagers at evens with…

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The great GE 2015 divide: CON 57pc chance of a majority or LAB an 81pc one

The great GE 2015 divide: CON 57pc chance of a majority or LAB an 81pc one

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One thing’s for sure: They can’t both be right Nine days ago the prominent Oxford political scientist, Dr. Stephen Fisher, produced what appeared to be a startling new forecast for GE2015 that gave the Conservatives a 57% chance of winning an overall majority. Last night the ex-Cambridge mathematician, Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus fame, issued his latest monthly forecast based on a polling average applied to his well known and widely used Commons seat model. This pointed to Labour having…

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CON up 4 in a fortnight in latest Opinium poll for Observer

CON up 4 in a fortnight in latest Opinium poll for Observer

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@tobyhelm I make that LAB down 1 on 2 wks ago LAB-1, 37 CON+4, 31 UKIP-1, 16 LD-2, 7 I think a CORRECTION might be needed — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 2, 2013 Labour lead six in op obs poll. Lab down one tories up four. Not lab down four as I said before. Trust @mikesmithson! — Toby Helm (@tobyhelm) November 2, 2013 @OpiniumResearch for Observer found 41% saying BBC biased 27% say it leans to the left 14% say it favours the right. — Mike…

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Sadiq Khan, Henry G’s 33-1 tip for next London Mayor, is now top LAB contender in the betting

Sadiq Khan, Henry G’s 33-1 tip for next London Mayor, is now top LAB contender in the betting

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Speaking to @channelinews with my mate @johnbiggs4mayor the next Mayor of Tower Hamlets #OneEastEnd pic.twitter.com/tUurebGJuk — Sadiq Khan MP (@SadiqKhan) October 29, 2013 Speaking to packed room of @HarrowLabour activists about vital local elections next year #Labourgains #Labourholds pic.twitter.com/V4JQWpLQ3E — Sadiq Khan MP (@SadiqKhan) October 28, 2013 Back in March Henry G Manson gave what might prove to be one of the best ever political betting tips here when he said get on Sadiq Khan, then at 33/1, for next…

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Why the electoral bias against the Conservatives could be even greater next time

Why the electoral bias against the Conservatives could be even greater next time

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Disproportionate 2010 LD>LAB switching in the marginals could shift more seats We all know that the national vote threshold for LAB overall majority is considerably lower than for the Tories. The reason is partly the boundaries but mostly down to the way the Labour vote is distributed. Generally LAB supporters appear much less likely to turnout in seats where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. But could the overall bias against the Conservatives be even greater at GE2015 than at…

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The message from bookies offering GE2015 seat markets is that LAB is some way off an overall majority

The message from bookies offering GE2015 seat markets is that LAB is some way off an overall majority

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In the good old days of political betting, which sadly are no more, the number of seats the parties would get at the next general election were traded like stocks and shares. For those who followed the polls and fancied their political prediction skills this offered a lot of opportunities. Thus on the morning of the May 2010 general election the buy level on LAB on the spread betting markets was 226 seats – 31 short of what the party…

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Looking at the trend in YouGov polls since mid-Sept it does seem that LAB has had 2-3 pc boost

Looking at the trend in YouGov polls since mid-Sept it does seem that LAB has had 2-3 pc boost

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Update : Labour lead at 9 – Latest YouGov/ The Sun results 28th October – Con 31%, Lab 40%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%; APP -28 http://t.co/xof1uRF0TJ — YouGov (@YouGov) October 29, 2013 A year ago the party was in the 42%-44% range The two great rules of polling analysis are focus on party shares not leads and always look at the trend. This is what I’ve tried to do in the above chart focusing on the LAB share since Miliband’s…

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