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Category: General Election

The economy might be recovering but new poll by Populus finds that only 11pc feel part of it

The economy might be recovering but new poll by Populus finds that only 11pc feel part of it

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A feeling of economic well-being is surely central to GE2015 There’s a new survey out from Populus with a sample of 4,071 British adults, in which 44% said that the most important issue in determining their vote at GE2015 will be either the economy or the cost of living. Of those participating 38% leant towards agreeing that there is a national economic recovery underway, just 11% of the sample agreed they feel part of that recovery. Further, 38% thought there…

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Should voting intention polls be banned in final stages of GE campaigns: 30pc of MPs are in favour

Should voting intention polls be banned in final stages of GE campaigns: 30pc of MPs are in favour

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In the days of Twitter a ban isn’t going to work A new ComRes survey of 159 MPs reveals that 30% of MPs overall, including 35% of Labour MPs and one in four Tories (25%), would support a ban on the publication of opinion polls in the run-up to General Elections. The survey comes in the wake of the Indian Election Commission banning exit polls in the five states holding elections this month, plus a ban on any opinion polls…

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In the marginals the presumption must that the more marginal voters will vote

In the marginals the presumption must that the more marginal voters will vote

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Polling turnout filters might be deceptive It has become standard practice almost all polling firms to include a weighting for turn out particularly in the final stages of a campaign. Participants are asked to rate the chances of them voting on a scale of 1-10 and the results are used to scale up or scale down their voting intention responses. The most radical approach is taken by Ipsos-MORI which only includes the views of those 10/10 absolutely certain to vote…

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LAB take 8pc lead in the November ICM phone poll for the Guardian

LAB take 8pc lead in the November ICM phone poll for the Guardian

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ICM finds huge gender gap Among men LAB & CON tied on 32% each Amongst women LAB 45% CON 26%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2013 39% of those who voted LD at GE2010 tell ICM that now they are voting LAB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2013 In July the firm had CON & LAB level pegging Good Ed v Dave scores in ICM poll for Guardian just out http://t.co/Ax0GrjDkkn pic.twitter.com/Mo8tVSsS4U — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2013 The…

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PaddyPower ‘s latest odds on the post GE2015 government

PaddyPower ‘s latest odds on the post GE2015 government

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Latest odds from PaddyPower http://t.co/0KpwlJgy4T on the government after the next election pic.twitter.com/QKY6NtKrXz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2013 With another bookie I have another CON-LD coalition at 9/1 and I’ve got 12/1 that there’ll be another hung parliament but no coalition. In many ways I think that a LD-LAB coalition is less likely than a CON-LD one. I think that LAB would find it much harder to swallow going in with the yellows than Dave did in 2010. If…

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GE2015 could be decided by whether enough people have felt the benefit of this ‘economic recovery’

GE2015 could be decided by whether enough people have felt the benefit of this ‘economic recovery’

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Henry G Manson on Ed and Dave’s big gambles These last few months have witnessed David Cameron and Ed Miliband place a sizeable political wager against each other, with the keys to Downing Street at stake. The Conservative leader believes the economy will show positive signs of recovery by 2015 and enough indication that the government has made good on its promise to repair the economy. The Labour leader on the other hand is gambling that even with 6 more…

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At GE2010 political gamblers and the bookies seriously understimated LAB

At GE2010 political gamblers and the bookies seriously understimated LAB

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Those who “bought” LAB seats made a packet About once a month, it seems, like this morning I get called by a journalist who wants to know whether the general election betting prices reflect over-optimism by Tory supporters about their party’s projects. What had happened last time he asked? The theory we have heard so many times before: Those with the money to risk on the spread betting markets are probably richer and, “therefore”, Tory This prompted me to dig…

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Exactly 18 months to go before GE2015 a look at whether incumbent governments ALWAYS recover

Exactly 18 months to go before GE2015 a look at whether incumbent governments ALWAYS recover

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The evidence is mixed The above chart was compiled by taking the polling average closest to the 18 month point before election day. As can be seen the first opposition leader to break the rule was Mrs. Thatcher in 1979. Jim Callaghan’s government performed worse on election day than the polls 18 months beforehand – but then, of course, there was the “winter of discontent”. In 1983 Mrs. Thatcher saw the biggest variation on the polling average 18 months earlier…

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