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Category: General Election

Labour cannot go into GE2015 with Balls still shadow chancellor

Labour cannot go into GE2015 with Balls still shadow chancellor

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Chris Leslie – Shadow Treasury Secretary pic.twitter.com/r5BkbT7KXm — PolPics (@PolPics) December 5, 2013 Could shadow treasury sec Chris Leslie be the answer? For me the striking feature of today’s autumn statement was how poorly Ed Balls performed. Yes he had to face a massive barrage of noise from the other side but his really poor communication skills were shown up. He’s just far too agressive and talks to fast. I know he’s got a stammer but he’s appalling diction –…

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If Osborne gets this right today could be the game-changer that gives the Tories hope again

If Osborne gets this right today could be the game-changer that gives the Tories hope again

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pic.twitter.com/JgiJ5y5kP1 — PolPics (@PolPics) December 5, 2013 Or it could just go plop and not make an impact We all remember that speech by Osborne at the October 2007 Tory conference that arguably changed the whole narrative and stopped Gordon Brown from going ahead with an autumn general election. In it Osborne, then shadow chancellor, called for a big easing of the inheritance tax rules which seemed to chime with the voters. It forced the then LAB chancellor, Alistair Darling,…

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An amazing statistic from the Survation Dudley North poll

An amazing statistic from the Survation Dudley North poll

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None of the 2010 LD voters in the Survation Dudley N poll said they'd be backing party at GE2015. They're now "don't know" or LAB backers — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2013 Admittedly the sub-set of 2010 LDs, at just 11 responses, was very small but you’d expect one or two to still be loyal to the yellows. In fact the data records zero. That’s something I’ve never seen before for any party. It does support the view that…

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The drip feed of the marginals polling could lead to more of the CON intake of 2010 deciding to call it a day

The drip feed of the marginals polling could lead to more of the CON intake of 2010 deciding to call it a day

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How many will follow the Laura Sandys route? We’ll have to wait until the early hours of May 8th 2015 before we can start to say for sure whether the Ashcroft marginals polling or the Alan Bown funded Survation polls are in anyway accurate but they could have a more immediate impact – on the decisions of many in the Conservative “class of 2010“ on whether to continue in politics. For a consequence of the marginals and single constituency polling…

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At GE2015 the traditional media will be far less important than ever before

At GE2015 the traditional media will be far less important than ever before

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Getting messages across is going to be a lot more difficult The above is from a Populus/Open Road poll which asked the simple question of which parts of the media people got information from each day. The poll did not cover the type of information so it is to be expected that percentages consuming what we think of as “news” are a lot lower. Clearly we’ve seen from newspaper circulation figures how the printed media is falling sharply. What I…

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Polling suggests that it is going to be harder for Tories to win UKIP votes than for the LDs to win LAB ones

Polling suggests that it is going to be harder for Tories to win UKIP votes than for the LDs to win LAB ones

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Double the %age of LAB voters will help LDs as UKIP ones the Tories Last week’s Survation Thanet South polling last week highlighted the reluctance of UKIP voters to switch to the Tories in order to stop EdM being PM. Given that the extent that UKIP switchers are ready to vote blue looks set to be a key determinant at GE2015 I’ve been looking for other data on the issue. Spetember’s massive 12,800 sample phone poll of marginals produced by…

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Will UKIP outpoll the Lib Dems at the 2015 General Election

Will UKIP outpoll the Lib Dems at the 2015 General Election

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With  less than 18 months to go until the general election, it is worth reviewing that markets that both William Hill and Ladbrokes have on Which party will receive the most votes in the next UK General Election? The Lib Dems or UKIP. The below table shows the vote shares for the Lib Dems and UKIP in the most recent polls by the various pollsters. Pollster Lib Dem % UKIP % Populus (online) 12 7 YouGov (online) 8 14 ComRes (phone)…

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Will it be English Tories that swings the IndyRef for the Yes Side?

Will it be English Tories that swings the IndyRef for the Yes Side?

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Will it be English Tories that swings the IndyRef for the Yes Side? New PB Thread http://t.co/8YtUktuchO pic.twitter.com/Z7Zjjxkoc7 — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) November 29, 2013 On the love that might finally dare to speak its name. For those of us betting and/or wanting Scotland to vote for independence, bar one poll that was commissioned by the SNP, the general thrust of the recent polling hasn’t been favourable for us, so where will this surge in support for the Yes Side come from? In…

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