The general election is sixteen months away and the polls are going to be increasingly important. The biggest in terms of volume of output is, of course, YouGov which carries out five surveys each week – four for the Sun and one for the Sunday Times. Sometimes these get reported at other times they don’t. I thought it quite a good idea to continue highlighting interesting single polls but also to record a weekly average so we’ll be a able…
(Innocent Abroad has been posting on PB for nearly 10 years and was the first to coin the term OGH. He’s now joined the guest slot writing team) Expect turnout to be lower next time One of the attractions of betting on politics, perhaps, is that, unlike, say, betting on horseracing, there are no rules: no authority – other than the law itself – to determine what is or is not improper conduct. It should therefore be borne in mind…
Overall LAB has had pretty steady start to 2014 This morning we’ve got the first Populus online survey of the year which has LAB back on 40% with CON down 2% to 33%. All just about within the margin of error. This follows the first week of YouGov daily polls which has had the Tories solidly on 32% with LAB ranging from 37% to 40%. The LDs have been on 9/10% while UKIP has been in the 12-14% range. All…
One of the great things about having a large overall sample, as Lord Ashcroft generally does, is that the sub-samples are based on numbers that give more confidence in the findings. This is why Lord Ashcroft polls in this way. Thus in the latest poll the total of public sector workers was 1.167 which is greater than the samples for many of the national surveys that we see. This has been a big area of change as the chart above…
First day back after the hols & more GE2015 battlegrounds emerge I agree with Nick Clegg. It would be unjust to balance budget on backs of lower income, working aged people. Hope Tories will clarify soon. — Tim Montgomerie (@TimMontgomerie) January 6, 2014 Tory insiders say they'd be tougher on pension benefits if UKIP didn't exist. "We can't afford more core vote defections to Farage" I'm told — Tim Montgomerie (@TimMontgomerie) January 6, 2014 Meanwhile UKIP leap ahead of LAB…
Observer front page lead http://t.co/EQ72wB7tlf — PolPics (@PolPics) January 5, 2014 Get ready for more attacks on him like the latest by Tristram Hunt Both Labour and Lib Dem strategists have told me in recent months that they now regard the education secretary, Michael Gove, as the Conservative party’s biggest electoral liability. The newly published YouGov polling showing Labour with a 41% lead amongst this voter group underlines the view that there’s a big benefit to be had in attacking…
The latest Lord Ashcroft mega poll has just been published as part of a study on how the Tories could win at GE2015. The poll was carried out online amongst a sample of 8,053 more than a month ago. Unlike the regular YouGov and Populus online polls Lord Ashcroft doesn’t use party ID weighting which tends to depress the UKIP voting numbers. To me it is striking that the 16% UKIP share is very close to tonight’s 17% share from…
Opinium is the only online survey which does not have any political weighting and tends to show UKIP on the high side. Also coming out tonight is the mega sample Ashcroft poll an a survey for one of the other Sundays. The Ashcroft poll will be reported here at 10pm. Mike Smithson Blogging from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble 2004-2014 Follow @MSmithsonPB