Browsed by
Category: General Election

Labour needs to take 69 of these seats to secure a majority

Labour needs to take 69 of these seats to secure a majority

Comments 0 Comment

The 106 seats @UKLabour has targeted in 2015: @marcusaroberts pic.twitter.com/ELuEw789jr — Election-data (@election_data) April 11, 2014 Your guide to the LAB targets Thanks to the compiler of the @election_data Twitter feed for this latest map showing where they key LAB targets are located. For details of the seats themselves check out the UKPollingReport LAB target list with the names of the seats, their ranking, which party is defending and the size of the majority. The seat that is on the…

Read More Read More

Labour’s “crutch” remains: The 2010 LD-LAB switchers are still on board and their numbers aren’t diminishing

Labour’s “crutch” remains: The 2010 LD-LAB switchers are still on board and their numbers aren’t diminishing

Comments 0 Comment

There hasn’t been much movement between CON & LAB The Populus aggregate data for March featured in the chart above sets out clearly that the big voter shift since 2010 hasn’t changed. Ed Miliband’s LAB is very reliant on those LD voters from last time who switched in the first year of the coalition staying on board. They make up such a big part of its current supporters base and represent a shift to LAB that is equal or greater…

Read More Read More

If LAB does come top in the Euros then EdM should send a thank you note to Tony Blair

If LAB does come top in the Euros then EdM should send a thank you note to Tony Blair

Comments 0 Comment

58% of the electorate will have local elections as well on May 22 In all the time that Tony Blair led the LAB party there was only one set of national elections where victory eluded him – the 1999 and 2004 contests for the European Parliament. He didn’t like that in the least and ahead of the 2004 contest he went to extraordinary lengths to win. First he changed what had been the standard practice and decided to put back…

Read More Read More

Worrying GE2015 and Euro numbers for the Tories in latest Survation/Mail on Sunday poll

Worrying GE2015 and Euro numbers for the Tories in latest Survation/Mail on Sunday poll

Comments 0 Comment

Last week the Survation GE2015 gap was just 1% – now it’s 7% Survation finds 6% CON drop for EP2014 as both UKIP & LD get boosts On the Euro polling the big difference between Survation and ComRes was on the timing of the fieldwork. All of the Survation work took place after the Clegg/Farage BBC TV debate. As can be seen the firm reports big changes compared with a week ago with the Tories as the main loser. I’m…

Read More Read More

Farage’s performance last night makes it much harder to keep him out of the GE2015 debates

Farage’s performance last night makes it much harder to keep him out of the GE2015 debates

Comments 0 Comment

It's going to be much harder keeping Farage out of the GE2015 debates pic.twitter.com/FamJJU9Muh — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2014 Unless Dave agrees he’ll be accused of running scared The big consequence of last night’s widely perceived victory by Farage in the debate with Clegg is that it’s going to be a lot harder keeping the UKIP leader out of the leaders’ debates at GE2015. Quite simply Clegg is now not in a position to object while Ed Miliband has…

Read More Read More

Ever so slightly the two most important measures for GE2015 have edged to the Tories in March

Ever so slightly the two most important measures for GE2015 have edged to the Tories in March

Comments 0 Comment

But there’s still a long way to go As regulars will know my analysis of the GE 2015 outcome is mostly focused on two key polling measures – the proportion of 2010 CON voters now saying UKIP and the 2010 LD who say they’ll vote Labour. These have to decline if the blues are to have any chance whatsoever of remaining in power on May 8th next year. For the polling of the past four years has seen very little…

Read More Read More

Tories the main winner, UKIP the main loser in the March 2014 Populus monthly aggregate – sample size 16k

Tories the main winner, UKIP the main loser in the March 2014 Populus monthly aggregate – sample size 16k

Comments 0 Comment

LAB share down on the month but only by 0.5% Today sees the second of what looks set to be a great resource right through until the general election – the Populus/FT monthly aggregate based on all the firm’s twice-weekly surveys with an overall sample size of more more than 16k. Having a sample on that scale means that the cross-tabs are more meaningful with much smaller margins of errors than we get with individual polls. Thus two key pointers…

Read More Read More