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Category: General Election

We could be heading for GE2015 outcome that’ll appear to be grossly unfair, undemocratic and peverse

We could be heading for GE2015 outcome that’ll appear to be grossly unfair, undemocratic and peverse

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This result could totally undermine the legitimacy of Labour’s victory The big impact of the rise of Ukip looks set to be a general election outcome that could call into question its whole legitimacy. If current trends continue Ukip could end up with many more votes nationally than the LDs and not end up with a single MPs. Labour could come home with a substantial overall majority even though it chalked up less than a third of the overall number…

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Cameron’s big 2015 debate gamble: to play or to sabotage

Cameron’s big 2015 debate gamble: to play or to sabotage

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The 5-3-2 proposal is unworkable and looks like a wrecking attempt There’s no doubt that David Cameron looks like someone who wants to avoid the kind of leaders’ debates that dominated the 2010 election.  He’s on record as saying that he’d prefer a different format, though the lack of engagement in the process to design them suggests no great urgency on his or his party’s part. Indeed, the proposal to have three debates – one between him and Ed Miliband,…

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EdM’s Labour is attracting far fewer Lib Dem converts for the May 22nd Euros than for the general election

EdM’s Labour is attracting far fewer Lib Dem converts for the May 22nd Euros than for the general election

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The voter churn is much nuanced than many in the red team think The above chart is based on the last three Euro2014 polls where there were Westminster numbers as well. The figures shown are proportions of 2010 LDs saying they’ll vote LAB in the general election and those who’ll support the party in the May 22nd Euros. As can be seen there’s quite a difference which raises questions about the LAB strategy with this key group of voters who…

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Lord Ashcroft teases us about his latest poll of the marginals. Can anyone decipher this?

Lord Ashcroft teases us about his latest poll of the marginals. Can anyone decipher this?

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What a tease @LordAshcrof is. His exchange with @DPJHodges Does this mean new marginals poll is good or bad for EdM? pic.twitter.com/I7S8dtP3Z9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 7, 2014 Just to note that Telegraph blogger, Dan Hodges, is an ex-LAB staffer who has never knowingly written anything that is positive about the younger Miliband. My reading of the exchange is that there’s been little movement in the marginals – but maybe I’m wrong. We’ll know two weeks on Saturday. Mike…

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UKIP Euro voters are more than twice as likely to say they’ll support party in general election compared with five years ago

UKIP Euro voters are more than twice as likely to say they’ll support party in general election compared with five years ago

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The first data from the 20,000 sample British Election Study Exactly a year to go and this morning I’m off to London for the launch of the British Election Study – a huge academic exercise involving Manchester/Oxford/Nottingham universities which is monitoring and will produce regular reports on the coming general election. The chart above is from findings that have been released overnight as a sort of taster. They seek to answer the big unknown – the extent that UKIP support…

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The big number to look for in this month’s upcoming Lord Ashcroft polling of the marginals

The big number to look for in this month’s upcoming Lord Ashcroft polling of the marginals

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An update on how the blue-red battle is doing where it matters, the marginals The big polling event of May 2014, exactly a year before general election, will be the publication by Lord Ashcroft of his latest mega sample polling of the marginals. This is due to be made available during the weekend immediately after the May 22nd local elections and immediately before the results of the Euro elections are announced. The former usually come on the Friday while with…

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Stand by for Ed’s next unlikely election victory. CON win most votes: LAB win most seats even possibly a majority

Stand by for Ed’s next unlikely election victory. CON win most votes: LAB win most seats even possibly a majority

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The Ladbrokes 5/1 is the best GE2010 bet there is We all remember that moment on September 25th 2010 when Ed Miliband just squeezed past his brother, David, in the election for LAB leader. It was a huge shock for almost everybody including the Westminster village which had decided a long time earlier that the elder Miliband would be Brown’s successor. In cash terms this was my biggest political bet ever and I bought a new car on the winnings….

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