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Category: General Election

Tories get to within 2% in the June ComRes online poll for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror

Tories get to within 2% in the June ComRes online poll for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror

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ComRes also repeated its regular “Favourability Index.asking “Please indicate whether you have a favourable or unfavourable view of each of the following.” The figures show the percentage replying “favourable”, and the net score, “favourable” minus “unfavourable”: Prince William 68% +59 The Queen 63% +51 Prince Charles 43% +22 Boris Johnson 41% +13 David Cameron 28% -18 Nigel Farage 26% -18 William Hague 25% -10 George Osborne 19% -25 Ed Miliband 19% -30 Theresa May 16% -22 Nick Clegg 13% -41…

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If Ladbroke punters have this right CON is heading for a win on votes – LAB on seats

If Ladbroke punters have this right CON is heading for a win on votes – LAB on seats

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10.5 mths to go & @LadPolitics http://t.co/GmnRBnYZFl makes it CON most votes LAB most seats http://t.co/5FG1QdHZUh pic.twitter.com/22KRvn3NWE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 13, 2014 Maybe this explains the disparity between constituency & GB markets The standard assumption is that this is mostly down to the boundaries is wrong. Yes LAB does get some benefit but the key factor is different turnout levels in CON and LAB seats. Shadsy of Ladbrokes gets this right in in his blog:- “..the main factor…

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David Herdson says that there’s never a good election to lose

David Herdson says that there’s never a good election to lose

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May 11th 2010 Those who invite or accept defeat for some greater end are usually deluded and counter-productive One pre-election tradition that has been little honoured so far is hearing the assertion it will be a ‘good one to lose’.  Invariably, those who put that argument forward fall into one or both of two overlapping groups: those who spy monsters down the road which they believe will slay the election winners, providing the opportunity for their preferred party to win…

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Estimating the “house effect” for each pollster. How much do they differ from the overall average for each party.

Estimating the “house effect” for each pollster. How much do they differ from the overall average for each party.

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All of us who follow the polls closely know that some firms will be particularly beneficial to one party or another and generally produce some of the worst figures for another party. Now as part of a methodology change the “Polling Observatory” at Manchester University in their latest report has sought to measure this as part of a big change in how they average the polls. A spin off from this is that they’ve sought to estimate the “house effect”…

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The big challenge now for UKIP: Securing enough votes in single seats well in excess of anything its achieved before

The big challenge now for UKIP: Securing enough votes in single seats well in excess of anything its achieved before

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Getting even a single MP might be beyond the purples There’s been lots of betting interest since EP14 and Newark over what UKIP will do at GE15. Will this be the election when the party that won the Euros actually gets it first MP or MPs? We’ve been over this many times but it is hard ask for Farage’s team to get enough votes in at least one of the 650 seats that puts them over the line. As we…

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The coalition parties make progress in this week’s Ashcroft phone poll: LAB & UKIP down

The coalition parties make progress in this week’s Ashcroft phone poll: LAB & UKIP down

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Things stabilising after EP14 & Newark The latest Lord Ashcroft phone poll has just been published and sees the two coalition partners gaining a bit while LAB/UKIP slip back. The effect is to reduce last week’s LAB 10% lead to 4%. Sounds dramatic but actually all changes are within the margin of error. For the LDs and Nick Clegg this poll will come as a huge relief. Last week’s 6% was the lowest for the yellows in a phone poll…

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Should the Lib Dems treat the 2015 election as their Rorke’s Drift

Should the Lib Dems treat the 2015 election as their Rorke’s Drift

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The video above is what it must feel like to be Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems and what awaits them in next year’s General Election. James Kirkup in the Telegraph writes about the Lib Dems in Newark If Labour was passive in Newark, the Lib Dems were non-existent. Not a single Lib Dem MP campaigned there, and only a single peer. (Lord Newby). The cash-strapped central party gave no support to the local candidate. Finishing sixth and losing the…

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From the latest Ashcroft Marginals polling that should have attracted the attention it deserves

From the latest Ashcroft Marginals polling that should have attracted the attention it deserves

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Breakdown from specific seats which each had 1,000 sample Preferred GE15 outcome in 26 seats from @LordAshcroft latest marginals polling pic.twitter.com/ZnXsgE7dT8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 2, 2014 As we wait for this afternoon’s Newark poll from Lord Ashcroft I thought it worth going back to his massive marginals polling published the weekend before last. Because of the timing, on the Saturday after the local results but before the Euros, it got nothing like the attention it deserved. This was…

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