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Category: General Election

Free schools could be a bigger negative for the Tories than EdM is for Labour

Free schools could be a bigger negative for the Tories than EdM is for Labour

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Fewer than one in four voters back Gove’s flagship policy Maybe it is because free schools have been making the news because of the Birmingham developments and the row between Michael Gove and Theresa May but the blue team will be disappointed by the response to this key policy area in today’s YouGov. The actual wording of the question was whether those pollsed supported or opposed “The creation of “Free Schools” – new state schools set up by parents, teachers…

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After a year of edging down LAB is starting to move upwards

After a year of edging down LAB is starting to move upwards

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Today’s YouGov has CON 32/LAB 38/LD 8/UKIP 14 The chart above is based on the YouGov monthly averages for the past year plus, for June, an average of the past 15 polls. As I’ve written many times before there are so many YouGov polls (five or six a week) that looking at averages is the best way of observing the trend. Thankfully the firm is making the calculations and is now publishing them. I used to attempt this task myself!…

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At GE15 the result in Watford is set once again to be the most interesting, most argued about and most bet upon

At GE15 the result in Watford is set once again to be the most interesting, most argued about and most bet upon

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You can make a strong case for Red, Blue or Yellow Back at GE2010 we had many arguments and discussions about what would happen in Watford which LAB was defending. Jack W, for instance, argued strongly that this was a Lib Dem gain while I put my money on the Tories. You can see the result by clicking the GE10 tab on the interactive chart. My reasoning was that the overall tide was to the Tories and that the blues…

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Lord Ashcroft’s poll of the CON-LD marginals – the headline Tweets

Lord Ashcroft’s poll of the CON-LD marginals – the headline Tweets

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Further detail from @LordAshcroft mega-poll of LD-CON marginals pic.twitter.com/pRyRtkw7K8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 19, 2014 What @LordAshcroft poll didn't do was name the candidates/incumbents which is likely to have had an impact. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 19, 2014 @LordAshcroft poll data on level of campaigning activity by parties in the 17 seats. pic.twitter.com/fx0tjJuHvp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 19, 2014 @LordAshcroft Eastleigh poll has the LDs holding in with 12% margin LD 39 CON 27 UKIP 22 This had been key UKIP target…

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On the Miliband ratings it is the views of the 2010 LD to LAB switchers that matter most

On the Miliband ratings it is the views of the 2010 LD to LAB switchers that matter most

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Why LAB strategists won’t be too worried about EdM’s batch of poor personal numbers One of the big factors that makes analysing this election so different from the past is the amount of data in the public domain from which we can measure significant sub-groups – like those 2010 LD voters who have switched to LAB. As I’ve repeatedly said the LD>LAB switchers represents a bigger shift than the entire increase in the CON vote from 1997 to 2010 and…

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LAB retains 3 percent lead with Ipsos-MORI but one in two voters think EdM should go

LAB retains 3 percent lead with Ipsos-MORI but one in two voters think EdM should go

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LAB had 5% lead with @IpsosMORI with all expressing voting preference but down to 3% with those certain to vote See pic.twitter.com/5GpkJphM65 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 18, 2014 Nick Clegg sees best net leader satisfaction change from Ipsos-MORI though starts from low base EdM & Dave both down pic.twitter.com/30U3DbJPIP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 18, 2014 REVISION 49% of those in the @IpsosMORI sample say EdM should be replaced before GE15. Amongst LAB voters the figure was 43% — Mike Smithson…

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The Tory hope that 2010 winners will get a first time incumbency bonus barely registers in the Ashcroft polling

The Tory hope that 2010 winners will get a first time incumbency bonus barely registers in the Ashcroft polling

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Lord Ashcroft May 2014 marginals polling Some MPs will get a bonus but the overall position is mixed One of the great hopes for the Tories is that those MPs who were first elected in 2010 will perform better than the national swing because of what’s become known as “first time incumbency bonus”. To try to test this in his battleground polling Lord Ashcroft asks a two-stage voting intention question. The first is the standard one while the second asks…

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This week’s Ashcroft phone poll sees LAB move to 6%

This week’s Ashcroft phone poll sees LAB move to 6%

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UKIP down 4 points in a fortnight The latest Lord Ashcroft phone poll has just been published and the numbers have a more familiar ring to them. UKIP is down from the dizzy heights of 19% that they chalked up in the immediate aftermath of their EP14 success. The LDs are up from the miserable 6% they were on at the end of May. But it’s the gap between LAB and CON that really matters and although the blues are…

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